Wouter Burger
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Wouter Burger's performance-implied value at EUR 3.2M-17.1M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 15.1M-28.2M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 11.3M-33.3M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 2.54x the positional average in the league (2441 minutes, league coefficient 0.94). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 44
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 71.3th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 25.4 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €20.9M vs market €20.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | -1% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.94 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2441 (80% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.44
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.32
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 71 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.94 (rank 3)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1508
- Opponent strength
- 1476
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €11.3M – €33.3M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -4% (IQR -43% to +11%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | Bundesliga | DM | 30 | 2441 | 80% | 4 | 8 | 0.44 | 0.31 | 1476 | 1508 | 0.94 |
| 2020/21 | Sparta Rotterdam | Eredivisie | DM | 18 | 758 | 25% | 2 | 1 | 0.36 | 0.19 | 1344 | 1320 | 0.56 |
| 2020/21 | Feyenoord Rotterdam | Eredivisie | CM | 1 | 5 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.13 | 1247 | 1457 | 0.56 |
| 2019/20 | Feyenoord Rotterdam | Eredivisie | CM | 6 | 242 | 11% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 1285 | 1542 | 0.62 |
| 2018/19 | Feyenoord Rotterdam | Eredivisie | DM | 1 | 10 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 1244 | 1502 | 0.61 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Dfb Pokal | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 2 | 139 | 1 | 1 | — |
| 2020/21 | Knvb Beker | Sparta Rotterdam | 1 | 15 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | Feyenoord Rotterdam | 4 | 136 | 1 | 0 | 1308 |
| 2018/19 | Knvb Beker | Feyenoord Rotterdam | 1 | 19 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2018/19 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | Feyenoord Rotterdam | 1 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 1396 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Teun Koopmeiners Serie A · 2023 | 25 | €30.0M | €35.0M | flat |
| Gary Medel Laliga · 2013 | 26 | €10.0M | €10.0M | flat |
| Cheikhou Kouyaté Premier League · 2016 | 27 | €11.0M | €12.0M | flat |
| Wylan Cyprien Ligue 1 · 2020 | 25 | €14.5M | €4.5M | fell |
| Téji Savanier Ligue 1 · 2019 | 28 | €12.0M | €11.0M | flat |
| Carlos Soler Laliga · 2022 | 25 | €50.0M | €20.0M | fell |
| Ivan Rakitic Laliga · 2013 | 25 | €15.0M | €40.0M | rose |
| Gerson Ligue 1 · 2022 | 25 | €22.0M | €14.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 Jul 2025 | Stoke City | Hoffenheim | €4.0M | €4.5M |
| 25 Aug 2023 | Basel | Stoke City | €5.8M | €4.5M |
| 31 Aug 2021 | Feyenoord | Basel | €700k | €700k |
| 30 Jun 2021 | Sparta R. | Feyenoord | Free / loan | €700k |
| 2 Oct 2020 | Feyenoord | Sparta R. | Free / loan | €1.3M |
| 4 May 2020 | Excelsior | Feyenoord | Free / loan | €1.3M |
| 23 Jan 2020 | Feyenoord | Excelsior | Free / loan | €1.5M |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Feyenoord U19 | Feyenoord | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Oct 2017 | Feyenoord U17 | Feyenoord U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Feyenoord Youth | Feyenoord U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2013 | Excelsior Jeugd | Feyenoord Youth | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.