
Carlos Soler
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Carlos Soler's performance-implied value at EUR 7.0M-14.4M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 3.0M-7.9M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 2.0M-5.1M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.27x the positional average in the league (2326 minutes, league coefficient 0.95). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 43
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | High | 87.2th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 29.5 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €4.3M vs market €7.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -42% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.95 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2326 (68% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.27
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.28
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 87 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.95 (rank 2)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1462
- Opponent strength
- 1492
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €2.0M – €5.1M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 27 pts; changed club; league level down (-99 Elo); relative output up 61% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -50% (IQR -61% to -34%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Real Sociedad | Laliga | CM | 33 | 2326 | 68% | 4 | 3 | 0.27 | 0.28 | 1492 | 1462 | 0.95 |
| 2024/25 | West Ham United | Premier League | CM | 31 | 1404 | 41% | 1 | 1 | 0.13 | 0.17 | 1568 | 1520 | 1.23 |
| 2023/24 | Paris Saint-Germain | Ligue 1 | CM | 24 | 1089 | 36% | 2 | 2 | 0.33 | 0.17 | 1440 | 1700 | 0.87 |
| 2022/23 | Paris Saint-Germain | Ligue 1 | CM | 26 | 1185 | 35% | 3 | 3 | 0.46 | 0.21 | 1417 | 1672 | 0.82 |
| 2022/23 | Valencia CF | Laliga | CM | 3 | 243 | 7% | 1 | 0 | 0.37 | 0.30 | 1553 | 1444 | 0.98 |
| 2021/22 | Valencia CF | Laliga | CM | 32 | 2411 | 70% | 11 | 5 | 0.60 | 0.55 | 1510 | 1487 | 1.05 |
| 2019/20 | Valencia CF | Laliga | LM | 28 | 2073 | 61% | 2 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.15 | 1535 | 1548 | 1.16 |
| 2018/19 | Valencia CF | Laliga | RM | 31 | 2466 | 72% | 2 | 7 | 0.33 | 0.32 | 1543 | 1653 | 1.14 |
| 2017/18 | Valencia CF | Laliga | RM | 33 | 2377 | 70% | 1 | 4 | 0.19 | 0.27 | 1556 | 1607 | 1.11 |
| 2016/17 | Valencia CF | Laliga | CM | 23 | 1724 | 50% | 3 | 1 | 0.21 | 0.26 | 1566 | 1499 | 1.11 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Copa Del Rey | Real Sociedad | 7 | 557 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Fa Cup | West Ham United | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Champions League | Paris Saint-Germain | 2 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 1601 |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Champions League | Paris Saint-Germain | 6 | 155 | 1 | 0 | 1689 |
| 2021/22 | Copa Del Rey | Valencia CF | 6 | 540 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Champions League | Valencia CF | 5 | 393 | 1 | 0 | 1674 |
| 2019/20 | Copa Del Rey | Valencia CF | 3 | 300 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Supercopa | Valencia CF | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1749 |
| 2018/19 | Uefa Europa League | Valencia CF | 7 | 508 | 0 | 0 | 1577 |
| 2018/19 | Copa Del Rey | Valencia CF | 7 | 476 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2018/19 | Uefa Champions League | Valencia CF | 6 | 390 | 2 | 2 | 1632 |
| 2017/18 | Copa Del Rey | Valencia CF | 4 | 149 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2016/17 | Copa Del Rey | Valencia CF | 3 | 122 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grischa Prömel Bundesliga · 2024 | 29 | €7.0M | €3.5M | fell |
| Mikel Vesga Laliga · 2023 | 30 | €6.0M | €2.5M | fell |
| Rémy Cabella Ligue 1 · 2018 | 28 | €9.0M | €11.0M | rose |
| Robin Gosens Bundesliga · 2024 | 30 | €12.0M | €4.0M | fell |
| Daniel Didavi Bundesliga · 2018 | 28 | €7.0M | €2.0M | fell |
| Morgan Amalfitano Premier League · 2014 | 29 | €5.0M | €2.5M | fell |
| Ja-cheol Koo Bundesliga · 2016 | 27 | €4.5M | €3.5M | fell |
| Jae-sung Lee Bundesliga · 2023 | 31 | €4.0M | €2.5M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Sept 2025 | PSG | Real Sociedad | €6.0M | €18.0M |
| 30 Jun 2025 | West Ham | PSG | Free / loan | €18.0M |
| 30 Aug 2024 | PSG | West Ham | Free / loan | €20.0M |
| 1 Sept 2022 | Valencia | PSG | €18.0M | €50.0M |
| 1 Jan 2017 | Valencia B | Valencia | Unknown | €400k |
| 1 Jul 2015 | Valencia U19 | Valencia B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2014 | Valencia CF You | Valencia U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.