Carlos Soler

29 yrs · Central midfielder (also LM, RM) · Spain
Real Sociedad · Laliga · Foot: right · Height: 180 cm
Risk: LowConfidence: MediumSample: HighDevelopment: LowContract: until 30 Jun 2029
Market value
€7.0M
Updated 6 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€3.0M – €7.9M
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€7.0M – €14.4M
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€2.0M – €5.1M
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€850k – €11.5M
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€3.0M – €7.9M
Model value (performance-implied)€7.0M – €14.4M
Projected value (24 months)€2.0M – €5.1M
Dashed line: current market value (€7.0M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Carlos Soler's performance-implied value at EUR 7.0M-14.4M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 3.0M-7.9M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 2.0M-5.1M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.27x the positional average in the league (2326 minutes, league coefficient 0.95). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Bargain Index: 43

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

PerformanceHigh87.2th pct among MID peers (age-neutral)
AgeUnfavorable29.5 years
Acquisition costFavorableest. €4.3M vs market €7.0M
Expected appreciationVery low-42% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapVery largeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationBig-five leagueleague coefficient 0.95
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskLow
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €50.0M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
2326 (68% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.27
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.28
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
87 (High)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.95 (rank 2)
Team strength (Elo)
1462
Opponent strength
1492
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
improving
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€2.0M – €5.1M

Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 27 pts; changed club; league level down (-99 Elo); relative output up 61% vs positional peers.

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -50% (IQR -61% to -34%).

Risk profile

Overall: Low

  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Already playing in a big-five league.

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26Real SociedadLaligaCM33232668%430.270.28149214620.95
2024/25West Ham UnitedPremier LeagueCM31140441%110.130.17156815201.23
2023/24Paris Saint-GermainLigue 1CM24108936%220.330.17144017000.87
2022/23Paris Saint-GermainLigue 1CM26118535%330.460.21141716720.82
2022/23Valencia CFLaligaCM32437%100.370.30155314440.98
2021/22Valencia CFLaligaCM32241170%1150.600.55151014871.05
2019/20Valencia CFLaligaLM28207361%200.090.15153515481.16
2018/19Valencia CFLaligaRM31246672%270.330.32154316531.14
2017/18Valencia CFLaligaRM33237770%140.190.27155616071.11
2016/17Valencia CFLaligaCM23172450%310.210.26156614991.11

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2025/26Copa Del ReyReal Sociedad755700—
2024/25Fa CupWest Ham United1500—
2023/24Uefa Champions LeagueParis Saint-Germain28001601
2022/23Uefa Champions LeagueParis Saint-Germain6155101689
2021/22Copa Del ReyValencia CF654010—
2019/20Uefa Champions LeagueValencia CF5393101674
2019/20Copa Del ReyValencia CF330000—
2019/20SupercopaValencia CF190001749
2018/19Uefa Europa LeagueValencia CF7508001577
2018/19Copa Del ReyValencia CF747601—
2018/19Uefa Champions LeagueValencia CF6390221632
2017/18Copa Del ReyValencia CF414901—
2016/17Copa Del ReyValencia CF312200—

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Grischa Prömel
Bundesliga · 2024
29€7.0M€3.5Mfell
Mikel Vesga
Laliga · 2023
30€6.0M€2.5Mfell
Rémy Cabella
Ligue 1 · 2018
28€9.0M€11.0Mrose
Robin Gosens
Bundesliga · 2024
30€12.0M€4.0Mfell
Daniel Didavi
Bundesliga · 2018
28€7.0M€2.0Mfell
Morgan Amalfitano
Premier League · 2014
29€5.0M€2.5Mfell
Ja-cheol Koo
Bundesliga · 2016
27€4.5M€3.5Mfell
Jae-sung Lee
Bundesliga · 2023
31€4.0M€2.5Mfell

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
1 Sept 2025PSGReal Sociedad€6.0M€18.0M
30 Jun 2025West HamPSGFree / loan€18.0M
30 Aug 2024PSGWest HamFree / loan€20.0M
1 Sept 2022ValenciaPSG€18.0M€50.0M
1 Jan 2017Valencia BValenciaUnknown€400k
1 Jul 2015Valencia U19Valencia BUnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2014Valencia CF YouValencia U19UnknownData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.