Aurélien Tchouaméni
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Aurélien Tchouaméni's performance-implied value at EUR 26.0M-79.4M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 49.0M-86.3M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 29.3M-69.2M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.25x the positional average in the league (2623 minutes, league coefficient 0.95). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 8
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Elite | 97.4th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 26.4 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €63.6M vs market €70.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -41% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.95 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2623 (77% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.03
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.03
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 97 (Elite)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.95 (rank 2)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1745
- Opponent strength
- 1478
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €29.3M – €69.2M
Trajectory drivers: relative output up 55% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -42% (IQR -66% to +27%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Real Madrid | Laliga | DM | 33 | 2623 | 77% | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 1478 | 1745 | 0.95 |
| 2024/25 | Real Madrid | Laliga | DM | 32 | 2692 | 79% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 1506 | 1764 | 0.95 |
| 2023/24 | Real Madrid | Laliga | DM | 27 | 1986 | 58% | 3 | 1 | 0.18 | 0.09 | 1484 | 1867 | 1.00 |
| 2022/23 | Real Madrid | Laliga | DM | 33 | 2120 | 62% | 0 | 4 | 0.17 | 0.09 | 1497 | 1737 | 0.98 |
| 2021/22 | AS Monaco | Ligue 1 | DM | 35 | 2931 | 86% | 3 | 2 | 0.15 | 0.12 | 1423 | 1599 | 0.86 |
| 2020/21 | AS Monaco | Ligue 1 | DM | 36 | 3073 | 90% | 2 | 4 | 0.18 | 0.17 | 1441 | 1549 | 0.75 |
| 2019/20 | FC Girondins Bordeaux | Ligue 1 | DM | 15 | 1113 | 44% | 0 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.10 | 1439 | 1436 | 0.82 |
| 2019/20 | AS Monaco | Ligue 1 | DM | 3 | 62 | 2% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 1397 | 1426 | 0.82 |
| 2018/19 | FC Girondins Bordeaux | Ligue 1 | CM | 10 | 706 | 21% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 1424 | 1408 | 0.82 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | Real Madrid | 13 | 1125 | 1 | 1 | 1650 |
| 2025/26 | World Cup | France | 2 | 180 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2025/26 | Supercopa | Real Madrid | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | 1755 |
| 2025/26 | Copa Del Rey | Real Madrid | 1 | 13 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League | Real Madrid | 11 | 800 | 0 | 0 | 1688 |
| 2024/25 | Copa Del Rey | Real Madrid | 5 | 540 | 2 | 1 | — |
| 2024/25 | Supercopa | Real Madrid | 2 | 119 | 0 | 0 | 1632 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Super Cup | Real Madrid | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1709 |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Champions League | Real Madrid | 8 | 605 | 0 | 0 | 1728 |
| 2023/24 | Supercopa | Real Madrid | 2 | 171 | 0 | 0 | 1693 |
| 2023/24 | Copa Del Rey | Real Madrid | 1 | 47 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Champions League | Real Madrid | 10 | 430 | 0 | 0 | 1622 |
| 2022/23 | Copa Del Rey | Real Madrid | 4 | 133 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Super Cup | Real Madrid | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1595 |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Europa League | AS Monaco | 7 | 585 | 0 | 0 | 1504 |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | AS Monaco | 4 | 357 | 1 | 0 | 1542 |
| 2018/19 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | FC Girondins Bordeaux | 5 | 365 | 1 | 0 | 1354 |
| 2018/19 | Uefa Europa League | FC Girondins Bordeaux | 4 | 282 | 0 | 0 | 1455 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Strootman Serie A · 2018 | 28 | €28.0M | €8.0M | fell |
| Toni Kroos Bundesliga · 2014 | 24 | €40.0M | €50.0M | rose |
| Joan Jordán Laliga · 2022 | 28 | €22.0M | €3.5M | fell |
| Marcos Llorente Laliga · 2022 | 27 | €45.0M | €30.0M | fell |
| Adrien Rabiot Serie A · 2022 | 27 | €17.0M | €35.0M | rose |
| Allan Serie A · 2019 | 28 | €60.0M | €22.0M | fell |
| Sergio Busquets Laliga · 2014 | 26 | €45.0M | €60.0M | rose |
| Eric Dier Premier League · 2018 | 24 | €40.0M | €20.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2022 | Monaco | Real Madrid | €80.0M | €60.0M |
| 29 Jan 2020 | G. Bordeaux | Monaco | €18.0M | €14.0M |
| 1 Jul 2018 | G. Bordeaux B | G. Bordeaux | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Bordeaux U19 | G. Bordeaux B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Bordeaux U17 | Bordeaux U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2015 | Bordeaux Yth. | Bordeaux U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.