Adrien Rabiot
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Adrien Rabiot's performance-implied value at EUR 7.3M-29.7M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 7.5M-17.7M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 4.5M-10.5M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.13x the positional average in the league (2640 minutes, league coefficient 0.93). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 2
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Elite | 91.9th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 31.2 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €11.5M vs market €18.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -67% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Small | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.93 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2640 (77% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.38
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.25
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 92 (Elite)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.93 (rank 5)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1568
- Opponent strength
- 1498
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €4.5M – €10.5M
Trajectory drivers: changed club; role change AM -> CM.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -60% (IQR -72% to -53%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⚠Age 31: resale value typically declines.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | AC Milan | Serie A | CM | 29 | 2550 | 75% | 6 | 5 | 0.39 | 0.25 | 1498 | 1570 | 0.93 |
| 2025/26 | Olympique Marseille | Ligue 1 | AM | 1 | 90 | 3% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.29 | 1450 | 1504 | 0.88 |
| 2024/25 | Olympique Marseille | Ligue 1 | AM | 29 | 2483 | 81% | 9 | 5 | 0.51 | 0.43 | 1440 | 1557 | 0.88 |
| 2023/24 | Juventus FC | Serie A | CM | 31 | 2652 | 78% | 5 | 3 | 0.27 | 0.20 | 1492 | 1621 | 0.98 |
| 2022/23 | Juventus FC | Serie A | CM | 32 | 2751 | 80% | 8 | 4 | 0.39 | 0.26 | 1473 | 1614 | 0.94 |
| 2021/22 | Juventus FC | Serie A | CM | 32 | 2292 | 67% | 0 | 2 | 0.08 | 0.06 | 1440 | 1623 | 0.89 |
| 2020/21 | Juventus FC | Serie A | CM | 34 | 2313 | 68% | 4 | 1 | 0.19 | 0.12 | 1472 | 1698 | 0.90 |
| 2019/20 | Juventus FC | Serie A | CM | 28 | 1915 | 56% | 1 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.07 | 1400 | 1643 | 0.82 |
| 2018/19 | Paris Saint-Germain | Ligue 1 | CM | 14 | 1064 | 31% | 2 | 1 | 0.25 | 0.11 | 1413 | 1714 | 0.82 |
| 2017/18 | Paris Saint-Germain | Ligue 1 | CM | 33 | 2365 | 69% | 1 | 4 | 0.19 | 0.11 | 1452 | 1774 | 0.85 |
| 2016/17 | Paris Saint-Germain | Ligue 1 | CM | 27 | 1931 | 56% | 3 | 1 | 0.19 | 0.11 | 1413 | 1757 | 0.88 |
| 2015/16 | Paris Saint-Germain | Ligue 1 | CM | 24 | 1615 | 47% | 1 | 1 | 0.11 | 0.07 | 1424 | 1748 | 0.78 |
| 2014/15 | Paris Saint-Germain | Ligue 1 | CM | 21 | 1128 | 33% | 4 | 1 | 0.40 | 0.17 | 1390 | 1690 | 0.80 |
| 2013/14 | Paris Saint-Germain | Ligue 1 | CM | 25 | 1181 | 35% | 2 | 1 | 0.23 | 0.14 | 1454 | 1720 | 0.79 |
| 2012/13 | FC Toulouse | Ligue 1 | CM | 13 | 1035 | 30% | 1 | 3 | 0.35 | 0.38 | 1464 | 1479 | 0.88 |
| 2012/13 | Paris Saint-Germain | Ligue 1 | CM | 6 | 199 | 6% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.19 | 1440 | 1708 | 0.88 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Italy Cup | AC Milan | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | World Cup | France | 2 | 180 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2025/26 | Supercoppa Italiana | AC Milan | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1647 |
| 2023/24 | Italy Cup | Juventus FC | 4 | 360 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Europa League | Juventus FC | 8 | 750 | 1 | 2 | 1581 |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Champions League | Juventus FC | 5 | 447 | 2 | 0 | 1637 |
| 2022/23 | Italy Cup | Juventus FC | 3 | 270 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Champions League | Juventus FC | 7 | 537 | 0 | 0 | 1666 |
| 2021/22 | Italy Cup | Juventus FC | 5 | 410 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Supercoppa Italiana | Juventus FC | 1 | 120 | 0 | 0 | 1771 |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Champions League | Juventus FC | 7 | 499 | 1 | 1 | 1621 |
| 2020/21 | Italy Cup | Juventus FC | 5 | 434 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2020/21 | Supercoppa Italiana | Juventus FC | 1 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 1608 |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Champions League | Juventus FC | 5 | 368 | 0 | 0 | 1562 |
| 2019/20 | Italy Cup | Juventus FC | 4 | 193 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2018/19 | Uefa Champions League | Paris Saint-Germain | 5 | 282 | 0 | 0 | 1672 |
| 2018/19 | Trophee Des Champions | Paris Saint-Germain | 1 | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1620 |
| 2017/18 | Uefa Champions League | Paris Saint-Germain | 8 | 678 | 1 | 2 | 1735 |
| 2017/18 | Trophee Des Champions | Paris Saint-Germain | 1 | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1727 |
| 2016/17 | Uefa Champions League | Paris Saint-Germain | 5 | 355 | 0 | 1 | 1757 |
| 2015/16 | Uefa Champions League | Paris Saint-Germain | 7 | 521 | 3 | 0 | 1665 |
| 2015/16 | Trophee Des Champions | Paris Saint-Germain | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1581 |
| 2014/15 | Uefa Champions League | Paris Saint-Germain | 4 | 188 | 0 | 0 | 1733 |
| 2013/14 | Uefa Champions League | Paris Saint-Germain | 6 | 277 | 0 | 0 | 1650 |
| 2012/13 | Uefa Champions League | Paris Saint-Germain | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1461 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Filip Kostić Serie A · 2023 | 31 | €22.0M | €5.0M | fell |
| Mathieu Valbuena Premier Liga · 2015 | 31 | €11.5M | €3.0M | fell |
| Dimitri Payet Ligue 1 · 2018 | 31 | €22.0M | €10.0M | fell |
| Jonathan Clauss Ligue 1 · 2023 | 31 | €14.0M | €5.0M | fell |
| Igor Denisov Premier Liga · 2014 | 30 | €14.0M | €4.0M | fell |
| Papu Gómez Serie A · 2019 | 31 | €16.0M | €9.0M | fell |
| Marten de Roon Serie A · 2023 | 32 | €10.0M | €5.0M | fell |
| Moubarak Boussoufa Premier Liga · 2013 | 29 | €14.0M | €6.5M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Sept 2025 | Marseille | AC Milan | €7.0M | €25.0M |
| 17 Sept 2024 | Without Club | Marseille | Unknown | €35.0M |
| 1 Jul 2024 | Juventus | Without Club | Unknown | €35.0M |
| 1 Jul 2019 | PSG | Juventus | Free / loan | €35.0M |
| 30 Jun 2013 | Toulouse | PSG | Free / loan | €2.5M |
| 31 Jan 2013 | PSG | Toulouse | Free / loan | €1.5M |
| 1 Jul 2012 | Paris SG U19 | PSG | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2011 | Paris SG U17 | Paris SG U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2010 | Pau FC Jugend | Paris SG U17 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2009 | Créteil Youth | Pau FC Jugend | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2009 | Man City Youth | Créteil Youth | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2008 | Créteil Youth | Man City Youth | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.