Eric Dier

32 yrs · Centre-back (also DM, RB) · England
AS Monaco · Ligue 1 · Foot: right · Height: 191 cm
Risk: Very HighConfidence: LowSample: LowDevelopment: LowContract: until 30 Jun 2028
No index
CompareCheaper alternative
Market value
€4.0M
Updated today
Estimated acquisition
€1.8M – €4.0M
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€1.8M – €8.5M
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€1.0M – €2.6M
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€2.2M – €6.7M
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€1.8M – €4.0M
Model value (performance-implied)€1.8M – €8.5M
Projected value (24 months)€1.0M – €2.6M
Dashed line: current market value (€4.0M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Eric Dier's performance-implied value at EUR 1.8M-8.5M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.8M-4.0M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.0M-2.6M. Confidence is low: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Bargain Index: not assigned

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

Insufficient sample (< 900 league minutes)

PerformanceHigh88.9th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral)
AgeUnfavorable32.5 years
Acquisition costFavorableest. €2.9M vs market €4.0M
Expected appreciationVery low-57% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapLargeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationBig-five leagueleague coefficient 0.88
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskVery High
Data confidenceLow

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €40.0M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 1269 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
687 (23% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.13
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.08
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
89 (High)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.88 (rank 5)
Team strength (Elo)
1527
Opponent strength
1410
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
declining
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€1.0M – €2.6M

Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 25 pts; changed club; team strength down (-245 Elo).

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -58% (IQR -75% to -15%).

Risk profile

Overall: Very High

  • ▲Small sample: 687 league minutes last season.
  • ▲Age 32: resale value typically declines.
  • ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
  • ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Already playing in a big-five league.

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26AS MonacoLigue 1CB968722%100.130.08141015270.88
2024/25Bayern MunichBundesligaCB21146148%210.180.07147317720.94
2023/24Bayern MunichBundesligaCB15115938%000.000.02151317151.01
2023/24Tottenham HotspurPremier LeagueCB41996%000.000.04153515881.14
2022/23Tottenham HotspurPremier LeagueCB33281682%210.100.09157416061.23
2021/22Tottenham HotspurPremier LeagueCB35307290%000.000.01157816591.17
2020/21Tottenham HotspurPremier LeagueCB28252074%000.000.02157216471.19
2019/20Tottenham HotspurPremier LeagueDM19134139%020.130.10155016301.14
2018/19Tottenham HotspurPremier LeagueDM20150944%300.180.10155517321.22
2017/18Tottenham HotspurPremier LeagueDM34282783%020.060.04153617691.15
2016/17Tottenham HotspurPremier LeagueCB36304489%200.060.04152517231.07
2015/16Tottenham HotspurPremier LeagueDM37326896%320.140.13152216351.08
2014/15Tottenham HotspurPremier LeagueRB28229067%220.160.14152615761.06
2013/14Sporting CPLiga PortugalCB1489633%010.100.08148115660.74
2012/13Sporting CPLiga PortugalCB14106840%130.340.23144914810.86

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2025/26Uefa Champions LeagueAS Monaco3270101704
2024/25Uefa Champions LeagueBayern Munich6295101728
2024/25Dfb PokalBayern Munich17700—
2023/24Uefa Champions LeagueBayern Munich5450001785
2022/23Uefa Champions LeagueTottenham Hotspur7618001620
2022/23Fa CupTottenham Hotspur19000—
2021/22Fa CupTottenham Hotspur112000—
2021/22Uefa Conference League QualifyingTottenham Hotspur190001334
2020/21Uefa Europa LeagueTottenham Hotspur6499001538
2020/21Uefa Europa League QualifyingTottenham Hotspur190001352
2019/20Fa CupTottenham Hotspur538700—
2019/20Uefa Champions LeagueTottenham Hotspur5312001660
2018/19Uefa Champions LeagueTottenham Hotspur6266001653
2018/19Fa CupTottenham Hotspur16300—
2017/18Uefa Champions LeagueTottenham Hotspur7614011761
2017/18Fa CupTottenham Hotspur436000—
2016/17Uefa Champions LeagueTottenham Hotspur5441001598
2016/17Fa CupTottenham Hotspur436001—
2016/17Uefa Europa LeagueTottenham Hotspur2179011447
2015/16Uefa Europa LeagueTottenham Hotspur9669001559
2015/16Fa CupTottenham Hotspur433810—
2014/15Uefa Europa LeagueTottenham Hotspur3270001446
2014/15Uefa Europa League QualifyingTottenham Hotspur190001400
2014/15Fa CupTottenham Hotspur11000—

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Juan Manuel Vargas
Serie A · 2015
32€2.5M€400kfell
Youssouf Sabaly
Laliga · 2024
31€2.5M€2.5Mflat
Yuri Berchiche
Laliga · 2022
32€3.0M€1.8Mfell
Cristian Zapata
Serie A · 2017
31€2.5M€2.0Mfell
Massadio Haïdara
Ligue 1 · 2024
32€2.0M€600kfell
Lars Bender
Bundesliga · 2021
32€5.5M€5.5Mflat
Ignazio Abate
Serie A · 2018
32€3.0M€800kfell
Mehmet Topuz
Super Lig · 2014
31€3.5M€700kfell

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
1 Jul 2025Bayern MunichMonacoFree / loan€8.0M
1 Jul 2024TottenhamBayern MunichFree / loan€12.0M
30 Jun 2024Bayern MunichTottenhamFree / loan€12.0M
11 Jan 2024TottenhamBayern MunichFree / loan€12.0M
31 Jul 2014SportingTottenham€5.0M€3.5M
1 Jul 2012Sporting U19SportingUnknownData unavailable
30 Jun 2012Everton U18Sporting U19Free / loanData unavailable
20 Jan 2011Sporting U19Everton U18Free / loanData unavailable
1 Jul 2010Sporting U17Sporting U19UnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2009Sporting Sub-15Sporting U17UnknownData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.