James Justin
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates James Justin's performance-implied value at EUR 7.9M-18.8M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 4.8M-12.6M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 4.4M-9.6M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 45
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | High | 83.5th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 28.4 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €8.0M vs market €12.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -36% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Small | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 1.3 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1896 (55% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.14
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.22
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 84 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 1.30 (rank 1)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1521
- Opponent strength
- 1615
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €4.4M – €9.6M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 30 pts; changed club; team strength up (+154 Elo).
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -39% (IQR -56% to +19%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Leeds United | Premier League | RB | 29 | 1896 | 55% | 2 | 1 | 0.14 | 0.22 | 1615 | 1521 | 1.30 |
| 2024/25 | Leicester City | Premier League | RB | 36 | 2921 | 85% | 2 | 2 | 0.12 | 0.17 | 1567 | 1367 | 1.23 |
| 2022/23 | Leicester City | Premier League | LB | 14 | 1254 | 37% | 0 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.13 | 1552 | 1498 | 1.23 |
| 2021/22 | Leicester City | Premier League | RB | 13 | 997 | 29% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 1529 | 1582 | 1.17 |
| 2020/21 | Leicester City | Premier League | LB | 23 | 2070 | 61% | 2 | 2 | 0.17 | 0.14 | 1547 | 1585 | 1.19 |
| 2019/20 | Leicester City | Premier League | RB | 13 | 1010 | 30% | 0 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.11 | 1555 | 1563 | 1.14 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Fa Cup | Leeds United | 5 | 375 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Fa Cup | Leicester City | 2 | 180 | 2 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Fa Cup | Leicester City | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Europa League | Leicester City | 6 | 458 | 0 | 0 | 1476 |
| 2020/21 | Fa Cup | Leicester City | 2 | 165 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Fa Cup | Leicester City | 3 | 270 | 0 | 1 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cédric Soares Premier League · 2019 | 28 | €12.0M | €6.0M | fell |
| Florian Lejeune Premier League · 2018 | 27 | €8.0M | €4.8M | fell |
| Héctor Moreno Laliga · 2015 | 27 | €6.5M | €8.0M | rose |
| Conor Coady Premier League · 2023 | 30 | €12.0M | €2.2M | fell |
| Adam Webster Premier League · 2022 | 27 | €17.0M | €20.0M | flat |
| Angelo Ogbonna Premier League · 2019 | 31 | €8.0M | €2.5M | fell |
| Álex Moreno Laliga · 2020 | 27 | €5.5M | €18.0M | rose |
| DeAndre Yedlin Premier League · 2019 | 26 | €8.0M | €5.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Aug 2025 | Leicester | Leeds | €9.3M | €13.0M |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Luton | Leicester | €6.7M | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Luton U18 | Luton | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2014 | Luton Academy | Luton U18 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.