Tom van de Looi
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Tom van de Looi's performance-implied value at EUR 0.7M-3.9M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.9M-4.6M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 3.0M-6.5M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.27x the positional average in the league (2753 minutes, league coefficient 0.58). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 91
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 43.9th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 27 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €2.6M vs market €5.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -14% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.58 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2753 (90% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.03
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 44 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.58 (rank 9)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1406
- Opponent strength
- 1326
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €3.0M – €6.5M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 33 pts; team strength up (+73 Elo); relative output down 71% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -28% (IQR -44% to -6%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.58 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 58 (MID)
- Relative output kept
- 72%–151%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 78%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | FC Famalicão | Liga Portugal | DM | 32 | 2753 | 90% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 1326 | 1406 | 0.58 |
| 2024/25 | FC Famalicão | Liga Portugal | DM | 27 | 1748 | 57% | 0 | 2 | 0.10 | 0.12 | 1329 | 1333 | 0.51 |
| 2018/19 | FC Groningen | Eredivisie | CM | 17 | 693 | 23% | 0 | 1 | 0.13 | 0.17 | 1304 | 1356 | 0.61 |
| 2017/18 | FC Groningen | Eredivisie | CM | 16 | 1440 | 47% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 1336 | 1346 | 0.59 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018/19 | Knvb Beker | FC Groningen | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gojko Cimirot Jupiler Pro League · 2019 | 27 | €5.5M | €3.2M | fell |
| Josh Cullen Jupiler Pro League · 2022 | 26 | €5.0M | €10.0M | rose |
| Sasa Zdjelar Premier Liga · 2024 | 29 | €4.0M | €2.5M | fell |
| Jaba Kankava Premier Liga · 2014 | 28 | €3.0M | €2.5M | flat |
| Abdullah Durak Super Lig · 2014 | 27 | €2.0M | €1.8M | flat |
| Milad Mohammadi Premier Liga · 2019 | 26 | €5.0M | €2.5M | fell |
| Manolis Siopis Super Lig · 2023 | 29 | €5.5M | €1.8M | fell |
| Ibrahima Sissoko Ligue 1 · 2021 | 24 | €5.5M | €6.0M | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2024 | Brescia | Famalicão | Free / loan | €750k |
| 14 Sept 2020 | FC Groningen | Brescia | €450k | €425k |
| 30 Jun 2020 | NEC Nijmegen | FC Groningen | Free / loan | €425k |
| 14 Aug 2019 | FC Groningen | NEC Nijmegen | Free / loan | €500k |
| 1 Jan 2018 | Groningen U21 | FC Groningen | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Groningen U19 | Groningen U21 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Groningen U17 | Groningen U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2014 | Groningen Youth | Groningen U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.