
Tiago Djaló
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Tiago Djaló's performance-implied value at EUR 0.9M-3.2M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 3.3M-8.1M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 2.5M-8.2M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 24
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 45th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 26.2 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €5.5M vs market €7.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -37% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.4 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1463 (48% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.12
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.09
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 45 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.40 (rank 18)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1350
- Opponent strength
- 1249
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €2.5M – €8.2M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 29 pts; changed club; team strength down (-158 Elo); league level down (-54 Elo); relative output up 207% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -26% (IQR -34% to +11%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ⚠Limited sample: 1463 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.40 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 50 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 68%–191%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 54%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Beşiktaş Jimnastik Kulübü | Super Lig | CB | 18 | 1463 | 48% | 2 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.09 | 1249 | 1350 | 0.40 |
| 2024/25 | FC Porto | Liga Portugal | CB | 8 | 588 | 19% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 1382 | 1508 | 0.51 |
| 2023/24 | Juventus FC | Serie A | CB | 1 | 16 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 1433 | 1621 | 0.98 |
| 2022/23 | LOSC Lille | Ligue 1 | CB | 25 | 2021 | 59% | 2 | 1 | 0.13 | 0.10 | 1453 | 1555 | 0.82 |
| 2021/22 | LOSC Lille | Ligue 1 | CB | 28 | 2328 | 68% | 1 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.06 | 1417 | 1540 | 0.86 |
| 2020/21 | LOSC Lille | Ligue 1 | CB | 17 | 867 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 1424 | 1610 | 0.75 |
| 2019/20 | LOSC Lille | Ligue 1 | CB | 8 | 664 | 26% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 1489 | 1516 | 0.82 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024/25 | Uefa Europa League | FC Porto | 7 | 535 | 1 | 0 | 1567 |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Champions League | LOSC Lille | 7 | 533 | 0 | 0 | 1701 |
| 2021/22 | Trophee Des Champions | LOSC Lille | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1727 |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Europa League | LOSC Lille | 4 | 268 | 0 | 0 | 1588 |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Champions League | LOSC Lille | 3 | 267 | 0 | 0 | 1723 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tin Jedvaj Premier Liga · 2022 | 27 | €4.0M | €2.5M | fell |
| Javi Montero Super Lig · 2022 | 23 | €2.7M | €1.5M | fell |
| Marcel Tisserand Super Lig · 2021 | 28 | €3.4M | €2.8M | flat |
| Aurélio Buta Jupiler Pro League · 2022 | 25 | €3.0M | €5.0M | rose |
| Emanuel Mammana Premier Liga · 2021 | 25 | €3.0M | €4.5M | rose |
| Youcef Atal Super Lig · 2024 | 28 | €4.3M | €4.3M | flat |
| Stefano Denswil Super Lig · 2022 | 29 | €4.2M | €2.8M | fell |
| Clément Michelin Super League 1 · 2022 | 25 | €1.8M | €1.2M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 Aug 2025 | Juventus | Besiktas | €3.5M | €8.0M |
| 30 Jun 2025 | Porto | Juventus | Free / loan | €8.0M |
| 2 Sept 2024 | Juventus | Porto | Free / loan | €12.0M |
| 22 Jan 2024 | Lille | Juventus | €5.1M | €15.0M |
| 1 Aug 2019 | Milan U19 | Lille | €4.0M | €175k |
| 30 Jan 2019 | Sporting CP U23 | Milan U19 | €1.0M | €200k |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Sporting U19 | Sporting CP U23 | Unknown | €200k |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Sporting U17 | Sporting U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2015 | Sporting Sub-15 | Sporting U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2013 | Damaiense Fo. | Sporting Sub-15 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.