Tiago Djaló

26 yrs · Centre-back · Portugal
Beşiktaş Jimnastik Kulübü · Super Lig · Foot: right · Height: 190 cm
Risk: HighConfidence: MediumSample: MediumDevelopment: LowContract: until 30 Jun 2028
Market value
€7.0M
Updated 7 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€3.3M – €8.1M
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€863k – €3.2M
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€2.5M – €8.2M
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€7.2M – -€151k
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€3.3M – €8.1M
Model value (performance-implied)€863k – €3.2M
Projected value (24 months)€2.5M – €8.2M
Dashed line: current market value (€7.0M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Tiago Djaló's performance-implied value at EUR 0.9M-3.2M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 3.3M-8.1M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 2.5M-8.2M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Bargain Index: 24

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

PerformanceAverage45th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral)
AgeNeutral26.2 years
Acquisition costFavorableest. €5.5M vs market €7.0M
Expected appreciationVery low-37% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapVery negativeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationUncertainleague coefficient 0.4
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskHigh
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €16.0M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
1463 (48% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.12
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.09
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
45 (Average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.40 (rank 18)
Team strength (Elo)
1350
Opponent strength
1249
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
improving
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€2.5M – €8.2M

Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 29 pts; changed club; team strength down (-158 Elo); league level down (-54 Elo); relative output up 207% vs positional peers.

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -26% (IQR -34% to +11%).

Risk profile

Overall: High

  • ⚠Limited sample: 1463 league minutes last season.
  • ⚠League level coefficient 0.40 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
  • ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
  • ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Historical movers
50 (DEF)
Relative output kept
68%–191%
Held a regular role (900+ min)
54%
Confidence
Medium

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26Beşiktaş Jimnastik KulübüSuper LigCB18146348%200.120.09124913500.40
2024/25FC PortoLiga PortugalCB858819%000.000.03138215080.51
2023/24Juventus FCSerie ACB1160%000.000.05143316210.98
2022/23LOSC LilleLigue 1CB25202159%210.130.10145315550.82
2021/22LOSC LilleLigue 1CB28232868%110.080.06141715400.86
2020/21LOSC LilleLigue 1CB1786725%000.000.02142416100.75
2019/20LOSC LilleLigue 1CB866426%000.000.05148915160.82

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2024/25Uefa Europa LeagueFC Porto7535101567
2021/22Uefa Champions LeagueLOSC Lille7533001701
2021/22Trophee Des ChampionsLOSC Lille190001727
2020/21Uefa Europa LeagueLOSC Lille4268001588
2019/20Uefa Champions LeagueLOSC Lille3267001723

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Tin Jedvaj
Premier Liga · 2022
27€4.0M€2.5Mfell
Javi Montero
Super Lig · 2022
23€2.7M€1.5Mfell
Marcel Tisserand
Super Lig · 2021
28€3.4M€2.8Mflat
Aurélio Buta
Jupiler Pro League · 2022
25€3.0M€5.0Mrose
Emanuel Mammana
Premier Liga · 2021
25€3.0M€4.5Mrose
Youcef Atal
Super Lig · 2024
28€4.3M€4.3Mflat
Stefano Denswil
Super Lig · 2022
29€4.2M€2.8Mfell
Clément Michelin
Super League 1 · 2022
25€1.8M€1.2Mfell

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
27 Aug 2025JuventusBesiktas€3.5M€8.0M
30 Jun 2025PortoJuventusFree / loan€8.0M
2 Sept 2024JuventusPortoFree / loan€12.0M
22 Jan 2024LilleJuventus€5.1M€15.0M
1 Aug 2019Milan U19Lille€4.0M€175k
30 Jan 2019Sporting CP U23Milan U19€1.0M€200k
1 Jul 2018Sporting U19Sporting CP U23Unknown€200k
1 Jul 2017Sporting U17Sporting U19UnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2015Sporting Sub-15Sporting U17UnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2013Damaiense Fo.Sporting Sub-15UnknownData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.