Victor Nelsson
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Victor Nelsson's performance-implied value at EUR 1.9M-5.4M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 2.5M-5.2M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 3.0M-6.4M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 74
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 69.6th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 27.7 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €3.3M vs market €6.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -31% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.93 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 3316 (97% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.02
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 70 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.93 (rank 4)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1269
- Opponent strength
- 1505
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €3.0M – €6.4M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 83 pts; changed club; team strength down (-332 Elo); league level up (+127 Elo); relative output down 26% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -4% (IQR -19% to +69%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Hellas Verona | Serie A | CB | 38 | 3316 | 97% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 1505 | 1269 | 0.93 |
| 2024/25 | Galatasaray | Super Lig | CB | 11 | 285 | 9% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 1284 | 1557 | 0.39 |
| 2024/25 | Associazione Sportiva Roma | Serie A | CB | 4 | 185 | 5% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 1348 | 1668 | 0.99 |
| 2023/24 | Galatasaray | Super Lig | CB | 32 | 2563 | 75% | 2 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.04 | 1291 | 1597 | 0.45 |
| 2022/23 | Galatasaray | Super Lig | CB | 33 | 2964 | 91% | 0 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 1291 | 1535 | 0.50 |
| 2021/22 | Galatasaray | Super Lig | CB | 36 | 3240 | 95% | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 1250 | 1326 | 0.42 |
| 2021/22 | FC Copenhagen | Superliga | CB | 2 | 91 | 5% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 1272 | 1516 | 0.45 |
| 2020/21 | FC Copenhagen | Superliga | CB | 17 | 1482 | 75% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 1282 | 1409 | 0.43 |
| 2019/20 | FC Copenhagen | Superliga | CB | 24 | 2139 | 91% | 0 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.03 | 1260 | 1474 | 0.41 |
| 2018/19 | FC Nordsjaelland | Superliga | CB | 25 | 2235 | 96% | 1 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.06 | 1314 | 1323 | 0.44 |
| 2017/18 | FC Nordsjaelland | Superliga | CB | 25 | 2250 | 96% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 1288 | 1377 | 0.47 |
| 2016/17 | FC Nordsjaelland | Superliga | DM | 16 | 897 | 38% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 1282 | 1280 | 0.48 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | Galatasaray | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | 1525 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Europa League | Galatasaray | 4 | 64 | 0 | 0 | 1430 |
| 2024/25 | Italy Cup | Associazione Sportiva Roma | 1 | 11 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | Galatasaray | 5 | 450 | 0 | 0 | 1398 |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Champions League | Galatasaray | 4 | 101 | 0 | 0 | 1577 |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Europa League | Galatasaray | 1 | 62 | 0 | 0 | 1506 |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Europa League | Galatasaray | 8 | 720 | 0 | 0 | 1549 |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | FC Copenhagen | 2 | 180 | 0 | 1 | 1350 |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | FC Copenhagen | 3 | 270 | 0 | 0 | 1402 |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Europa League | FC Copenhagen | 10 | 930 | 0 | 0 | 1549 |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | FC Copenhagen | 4 | 390 | 0 | 0 | 1394 |
| 2019/20 | Oddset Pokalen | FC Copenhagen | 3 | 300 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | FC Copenhagen | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | 1265 |
| 2018/19 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | FC Nordsjaelland | 5 | 450 | 0 | 0 | 1345 |
| 2018/19 | Oddset Pokalen | FC Nordsjaelland | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2017/18 | Oddset Pokalen | FC Nordsjaelland | 1 | 120 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2016/17 | Oddset Pokalen | FC Nordsjaelland | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marin Pongracic Serie A · 2024 | 27 | €7.0M | €6.5M | flat |
| Koray Günter Serie A · 2020 | 26 | €2.4M | €5.0M | rose |
| Iván Piris Serie A · 2015 | 26 | €2.3M | €2.0M | flat |
| Daniel Schwaab Bundesliga · 2014 | 26 | €3.5M | €1.5M | fell |
| Prince Gouano Ligue 1 · 2018 | 25 | €3.0M | €4.8M | rose |
| Filip Helander Serie A · 2018 | 25 | €2.5M | €1.6M | fell |
| Thomas Foket Ligue 1 · 2019 | 25 | €6.0M | €6.0M | flat |
| David Abraham Bundesliga · 2016 | 30 | €2.5M | €5.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jun 2026 | Hellas Verona | Galatasaray | Free / loan | €6.0M |
| 21 Aug 2025 | Galatasaray | Hellas Verona | Free / loan | €10.0M |
| 30 Jun 2025 | Roma | Galatasaray | Free / loan | €10.0M |
| 3 Feb 2025 | Galatasaray | Roma | Free / loan | €14.0M |
| 11 Aug 2021 | Copenhagen | Galatasaray | €7.0M | €3.5M |
| 5 Jul 2019 | Nordsjaelland | Copenhagen | €3.6M | €3.0M |
| 14 Oct 2016 | Nordsjaell. U19 | Nordsjaelland | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2015 | FCN Youth | Nordsjaell. U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.