Aaron Ramsdale
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Aaron Ramsdale's performance-implied value at EUR 9.1M-19.5M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 5.9M-16.8M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 4.8M-10.7M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 5
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | High | 82.9th pct among GK peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 28.1 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €10.7M vs market €12.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -48% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 1.3 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 284 evaluated GK players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1003 (29% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.00
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 83 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 1.30 (rank 1)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1631
- Opponent strength
- 1576
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €4.8M – €10.7M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 50 pts; changed club; team strength up (+354 Elo).
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -13% (IQR -33% to +17%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 1003 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Newcastle United | Premier League | GK | 12 | 1003 | 29% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1576 | 1631 | 1.30 |
| 2024/25 | Southampton FC | Premier League | GK | 30 | 2700 | 79% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1572 | 1277 | 1.23 |
| 2023/24 | Arsenal FC | Premier League | GK | 6 | 540 | 16% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1548 | 1794 | 1.14 |
| 2022/23 | Arsenal FC | Premier League | GK | 38 | 3420 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1555 | 1726 | 1.23 |
| 2021/22 | Arsenal FC | Premier League | GK | 34 | 3060 | 89% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1553 | 1667 | 1.17 |
| 2020/21 | Sheffield United | Premier League | GK | 38 | 3420 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1560 | 1390 | 1.19 |
| 2019/20 | AFC Bournemouth | Premier League | GK | 37 | 3330 | 97% | 0 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.04 | 1598 | 1415 | 1.14 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | Newcastle United | 4 | 360 | 0 | 0 | 1692 |
| 2025/26 | Fa Cup | Newcastle United | 3 | 300 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Fa Cup | Southampton FC | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Champions League | Arsenal FC | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1741 |
| 2023/24 | Fa Cup | Arsenal FC | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Community Shield | Arsenal FC | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1920 |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Europa League | Arsenal FC | 3 | 300 | 0 | 0 | 1581 |
| 2020/21 | Fa Cup | Sheffield United | 4 | 360 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2018/19 | Fa Cup | AFC Wimbledon | 3 | 270 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2016/17 | Fa Cup | Sheffield United | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edouard Mendy Premier League · 2023 | 31 | €12.0M | €5.0M | fell |
| Kepa Arrizabalaga Premier League · 2021 | 27 | €13.0M | €18.0M | rose |
| Asmir Begovic Premier League · 2016 | 29 | €12.0M | €8.0M | fell |
| Fraser Forster Premier League · 2016 | 28 | €15.0M | €15.0M | flat |
| Robert Sánchez Premier League · 2024 | 27 | €20.0M | €22.0M | flat |
| Yassine Bounou Laliga · 2020 | 29 | €4.0M | €18.0M | rose |
| Mathew Ryan Premier League · 2021 | 29 | €6.0M | €4.0M | fell |
| Diego Alves Laliga · 2016 | 31 | €6.0M | €4.5M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jun 2026 | Newcastle | Southampton | Free / loan | €12.0M |
| 2 Aug 2025 | Southampton | Newcastle | Free / loan | €16.0M |
| 30 Aug 2024 | Arsenal | Southampton | €21.4M | €25.0M |
| 20 Aug 2021 | Sheff Utd | Arsenal | €28.0M | €12.0M |
| 19 Aug 2020 | Bournemouth | Sheff Utd | €20.5M | €12.5M |
| 31 May 2019 | AFC Wimbledon | Bournemouth | Free / loan | €500k |
| 4 Jan 2019 | Bournemouth | AFC Wimbledon | Free / loan | €500k |
| 31 May 2018 | Chesterfield | Bournemouth | Free / loan | €500k |
| 5 Jan 2018 | Bournemouth | Chesterfield | Free / loan | €500k |
| 31 Jan 2017 | Sheff Utd | Bournemouth | €940k | €50k |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Sheff Utd U18 | Sheff Utd | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 27 Dec 2015 | Worksop | Sheff Utd U18 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 25 Dec 2015 | Sheff Utd U18 | Worksop | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.