Bogdan Kushnirenko
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Bogdan Kushnirenko's performance-implied value at EUR 0.3M-0.5M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.1M-0.4M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.2M-0.4M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.99x the positional average in the league (1780 minutes, league coefficient 0.25). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 80
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 14.6th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 30.7 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €156k vs market €500k |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -32% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.25 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Very High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1780 (66% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.10
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.12
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 15 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.25 (rank 30)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1194
- Opponent strength
- 1194
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €159k – €444k
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 33 pts; changed club; relative output up 31% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -65% (IQR -71% to -45%).
Risk profile
Overall: Very High
- ▲League level coefficient 0.25 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠Limited sample: 1780 league minutes last season.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Age 31: resale value typically declines.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 37 (all positions)
- Relative output kept
- 87%–128%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 86%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Zorya Lugansk | Premier Liga | DM | 20 | 1719 | 64% | 1 | 1 | 0.10 | 0.12 | 1194 | 1192 | 0.25 |
| 2025/26 | LNZ Cherkasy | Premier Liga | DM | 2 | 61 | 2% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.14 | 1187 | 1242 | 0.25 |
| 2024/25 | LNZ Cherkasy | Premier Liga | DM | 8 | 544 | 20% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 1172 | 1110 | 0.28 |
| 2024/25 | FK Polissya Zhytomyr | Premier Liga | DM | 7 | 353 | 13% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 1249 | 1236 | 0.28 |
| 2023/24 | FK Polissya Zhytomyr | Premier Liga | DM | 25 | 1628 | 60% | 3 | 2 | 0.28 | 0.20 | 1280 | 1265 | 0.34 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024/25 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | FK Polissya Zhytomyr | 1 | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1367 |
| 2024/25 | Ukrainian Cup | FK Polissya Zhytomyr | 1 | 45 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Ukrainian Cup | FK Polissya Zhytomyr | 4 | 255 | 1 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyriakos Kivrakidis Super League 1 · 2021 | 29 | €400k | €300k | fell |
| Sergiy Petko Premier Liga · 2024 | 30 | €300k | €150k | fell |
| Vladlen Yurchenko Premier Liga · 2024 | 30 | €600k | €250k | fell |
| Matty Kennedy Scottish Premiership · 2024 | 30 | €350k | €100k | fell |
| Sean Kelly Scottish Premiership · 2023 | 30 | €400k | €100k | fell |
| Liam Polworth Scottish Premiership · 2024 | 30 | €350k | €100k | fell |
| Kyrylo Kovalets Premier Liga · 2024 | 31 | €500k | €150k | fell |
| Alex Gogic Scottish Premiership · 2023 | 29 | €400k | €450k | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 Sept 2025 | LNZ Cherkasy | Zorya Lugansk | Free / loan | €400k |
| 5 Jan 2025 | Polissya | LNZ Cherkasy | Free / loan | €500k |
| 27 Jan 2022 | Vorskla Poltava | Polissya | Free / loan | €200k |
| 13 Jul 2021 | MFC Mykolaiv | Vorskla Poltava | Free / loan | €300k |
| 25 Sept 2018 | FC Poltava | MFC Mykolaiv | Free / loan | €100k |
| 14 Mar 2016 | Without Club | FC Poltava | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2015 | Chornomorets II | Without Club | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Mar 2015 | Metalist II | Chornomorets II | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Feb 2014 | Arsenal Kyiv II | Metalist II | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2012 | Arsenal K. U17 | Arsenal Kyiv II | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Sept 2011 | DYuSSh-15 Kyiv | Arsenal K. U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.