Kevin Mac Allister
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Kevin Mac Allister's performance-implied value at EUR 3.3M-11.9M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 5.0M-11.7M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 4.3M-9.9M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 49
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 73.6th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 28.6 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €6.7M vs market €12.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -44% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.65 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2224 (82% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.08
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.05
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 74 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.65 (rank 6)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1570
- Opponent strength
- 1366
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €4.3M – €9.9M
Trajectory drivers: relative output down 24% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -39% (IQR -48% to -31%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 76 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 67%–160%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 76%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Union Saint-Gilloise | Jupiler Pro League | CB | 25 | 2224 | 82% | 1 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.05 | 1366 | 1570 | 0.65 |
| 2024/25 | Union Saint-Gilloise | Jupiler Pro League | CB | 26 | 2035 | 75% | 2 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.06 | 1375 | 1545 | 0.63 |
| 2023/24 | Union Saint-Gilloise | Jupiler Pro League | CB | 23 | 1887 | 70% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 1392 | 1589 | 0.63 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Jupiler Pro League Playoff I | Union Saint-Gilloise | 9 | 706 | 0 | 0 | 1450 |
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | Union Saint-Gilloise | 8 | 697 | 1 | 1 | 1678 |
| 2025/26 | Volkswagen Supercup | Union Saint-Gilloise | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1552 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Europa League | Union Saint-Gilloise | 8 | 734 | 3 | 0 | 1521 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | Union Saint-Gilloise | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | 1594 |
| 2024/25 | Volkswagen Supercup | Union Saint-Gilloise | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1557 |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Europa League | Union Saint-Gilloise | 6 | 536 | 0 | 0 | 1592 |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | Union Saint-Gilloise | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | 1356 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Simon Kjær Super Lig · 2016 | 27 | €8.5M | €10.0M | flat |
| Gökhan Gönül Super Lig · 2014 | 29 | €9.0M | €6.0M | fell |
| Brandon Mechele Jupiler Pro League · 2021 | 28 | €7.0M | €4.5M | fell |
| Stefano Denswil Jupiler Pro League · 2019 | 26 | €6.0M | €3.5M | fell |
| Yaroslav Rakitskyi Premier Liga · 2020 | 31 | €8.0M | €6.0M | fell |
| Douglas Santos Premier Liga · 2023 | 29 | €18.0M | €9.0M | fell |
| Cristian Villagra Premier Liga · 2013 | 28 | €6.5M | €1.0M | fell |
| Uros Spajic Premier Liga · 2019 | 26 | €7.5M | €4.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Jul 2023 | Argentinos Jrs. | Union SG | €1.5M | €4.0M |
| 31 Dec 2019 | Boca Juniors | Argentinos Jrs. | Free / loan | €1.2M |
| 28 Jan 2019 | Argentinos Jrs. | Boca Juniors | Free / loan | €2.0M |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Argentinos II | Argentinos Jrs. | Unknown | €75k |
| 1 Jan 2015 | Argentinos U20 | Argentinos II | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.