Ola Solbakken
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Ola Solbakken's performance-implied value at EUR 0.6M-1.8M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.5M-1.6M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.6M-1.6M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.97x the positional average in the league (1171 minutes, league coefficient 0.47). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 73
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 22.5th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 27.8 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €848k vs market €1.5M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -29% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.47 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1171 (59% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.54
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.38
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 23 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.47 (rank 12)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1315
- Opponent strength
- 1270
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €574k – €1.6M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 37 pts; changed club; league level down (-202 Elo); relative output up 29% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -33% (IQR -46% to -22%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 1171 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.47 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 20 (ATT)
- Relative output kept
- 78%–121%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 65%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | FC Nordsjaelland | Superliga | RW | 17 | 1171 | 59% | 6 | 1 | 0.54 | 0.38 | 1270 | 1314 | 0.47 |
| 2024/25 | FC Empoli | Serie A | RW | 21 | 754 | 22% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.32 | 1509 | 1344 | 0.99 |
| 2023/24 | Olympiakos Syndesmos Filathlon Peiraios | Super League 1 | LW | 5 | 260 | 11% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.22 | 1244 | 1490 | 0.42 |
| 2023/24 | Associazione Sportiva Roma | Serie A | SS | 1 | 22 | 1% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.45 | 1369 | 1618 | 0.98 |
| 2022/23 | Associazione Sportiva Roma | Serie A | RW | 14 | 505 | 15% | 1 | 2 | 0.53 | 0.35 | 1444 | 1578 | 0.94 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Oddset Pokalen | FC Nordsjaelland | 3 | 214 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2024/25 | Italy Cup | FC Empoli | 4 | 209 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Europa League | Olympiakos Syndesmos Filathlon Peiraios | 3 | 45 | 0 | 0 | 1396 |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Europa League | Fotballklubben Bodø/Glimt | 5 | 349 | 0 | 1 | 1569 |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | Fotballklubben Bodø/Glimt | 1 | 45 | 0 | 1 | 1356 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ronnie Schwartz Superliga · 2016 | 27 | €1.3M | €600k | fell |
| Marvin Pourié Superliga · 2017 | 26 | €800k | €600k | fell |
| Héldon Liga Portugal · 2016 | 28 | €1.8M | €1.5M | flat |
| Joca Liga Portugal · 2024 | 28 | €800k | €600k | fell |
| Sekou Cissé Jupiler Pro League · 2015 | 30 | €1.8M | €500k | fell |
| Nill De Pauw Jupiler Pro League · 2018 | 28 | €1.3M | €725k | fell |
| Gökhan Sazdağı Super Lig · 2023 | 29 | €750k | €1.2M | rose |
| David Goodwillie Scottish Premiership · 2015 | 26 | €750k | €450k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 Aug 2025 | Roma | Nordsjaelland | €950k | €2.3M |
| 30 Jun 2025 | FC Empoli | Roma | Free / loan | €2.3M |
| 14 Aug 2024 | Roma | FC Empoli | Free / loan | €2.5M |
| 30 Jun 2024 | Urawa Reds | Roma | Free / loan | €2.5M |
| 12 Jan 2024 | Roma | Urawa Reds | Free / loan | €3.0M |
| 11 Jan 2024 | Olympiacos | Roma | Free / loan | €3.0M |
| 2 Sept 2023 | Roma | Olympiacos | Free / loan | €3.5M |
| 2 Jan 2023 | Bodø/Glimt | Roma | Free / loan | €3.5M |
| 9 Jan 2020 | Ranheim | Bodø/Glimt | €65k | €300k |
| 12 Jan 2018 | Rosenborg II | Ranheim | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2015 | RBK Youth | Rosenborg II | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.