Rihito Yamamoto
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Rihito Yamamoto's performance-implied value at EUR 1.2M-3.9M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 3.8M-12.4M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 3.8M-10.5M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.70x the positional average in the league (2514 minutes, league coefficient 0.65). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Contract end date unavailable: range widened by 15% each side.
Bargain Index: 44
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 44.6th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 24.6 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €6.8M vs market €7.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | -8% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.65 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2514 (93% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.39
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.37
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 45 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.65 (rank 6)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1401
- Opponent strength
- 1381
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €3.8M – €10.5M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 58 pts; team strength up (+99 Elo); relative output up 83% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -44% (IQR -53% to -29%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⓘContract end date unavailable (or stale in source).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 60 (MID)
- Relative output kept
- 63%–142%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 72%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Sint-Truidense VV | Jupiler Pro League | CM | 29 | 2514 | 93% | 5 | 6 | 0.39 | 0.37 | 1381 | 1401 | 0.65 |
| 2024/25 | Sint-Truidense VV | Jupiler Pro League | CM | 18 | 948 | 35% | 0 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.20 | 1379 | 1302 | 0.63 |
| 2023/24 | Sint-Truidense VV | Jupiler Pro League | DM | 28 | 719 | 27% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 1434 | 1324 | 0.63 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Jupiler Pro League Playoff I | Sint-Truidense VV | 9 | 777 | 0 | 2 | 1450 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toma Bašić Ligue 1 · 2021 | 25 | €9.0M | €6.0M | fell |
| Michel Vlap Eredivisie · 2019 | 22 | €8.0M | €3.0M | fell |
| Pêpê Liga Portugal · 2022 | 25 | €3.5M | €3.0M | flat |
| Abdoulaye Doucouré Ligue 1 · 2015 | 22 | €4.5M | €6.0M | rose |
| Anthony Limbombe Jupiler Pro League · 2018 | 24 | €8.0M | €4.0M | fell |
| Igor Konovalov Premier Liga · 2019 | 23 | €3.0M | €1.5M | fell |
| Ogenyi Onazi Super Lig · 2017 | 25 | €4.0M | €2.5M | fell |
| Didier Ndong Ligue 1 · 2020 | 26 | €3.2M | €1.2M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2026 | Sint-Truiden | Freiburg | €7.0M | €7.0M |
| 1 Jul 2024 | Gamba Osaka | Sint-Truiden | €1.0M | €700k |
| 30 Jun 2024 | Sint-Truiden | Gamba Osaka | Free / loan | €700k |
| 1 Jul 2023 | Gamba Osaka | Sint-Truiden | Free / loan | €600k |
| 24 Jul 2022 | Tokyo Verdy | Gamba Osaka | Unknown | €700k |
| 1 Feb 2019 | Tokyo Verdy U18 | Tokyo Verdy | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.