Corrie Ndaba

26 yrs · Left-back · Ireland
US Lecce · Serie A · Foot: left · Height: 188 cm
Risk: HighConfidence: LowSample: LowDevelopment: LowContract: until 30 Jun 2028
Market value
€900k
Updated 6 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€340k – €1.2M
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€623k – €1.6M
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€423k – €1.5M
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€550k – €1.3M
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€340k – €1.2M
Model value (performance-implied)€623k – €1.6M
Projected value (24 months)€423k – €1.5M
Dashed line: current market value (€900k). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Corrie Ndaba's performance-implied value at EUR 0.6M-1.6M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.3M-1.2M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.4M-1.5M. Confidence is low: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Bargain Index: not assigned

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

Insufficient sample (< 900 league minutes)

PerformanceAverage41.7th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral)
AgeNeutral26.5 years
Acquisition costFavorableest. €678k vs market €900k
Expected appreciationLow-10% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapVery largeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationBig-five leagueleague coefficient 0.93
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskHigh
Data confidenceLow

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €900k

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 1269 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
539 (16% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.00
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.13
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
42 (Average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.93 (rank 4)
Team strength (Elo)
1352
Opponent strength
1525
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
declining
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€423k – €1.5M

Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 74 pts; changed club; team strength up (+182 Elo); league level up (+252 Elo); relative output up 107% vs positional peers.

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +22% (IQR -39% to +36%).

Risk profile

Overall: High

  • ▲Small sample: 539 league minutes last season.
  • ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
  • ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
  • ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Already playing in a big-five league.

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26US LecceSerie ALB1453916%000.000.13152513520.93
2024/25Kilmarnock FCScottish PremiershipLB31265990%100.030.06123811710.34
2023/24Kilmarnock FCScottish PremiershipLB23153152%100.060.14133212430.34

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2025/26Italy CupUS Lecce19000—
2024/25Scottish Fa CupKilmarnock FC19000—
2024/25Uefa Conference League QualifyingKilmarnock FC17001509
2023/24Scottish Fa CupKilmarnock FC320500—

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Noë Dussenne
Serie A · 2017
25€1.0M€650kfell
Jesper Juelsgaard
Ligue 1 · 2015
26€1.0M€400kfell
Stefan Simic
Serie A · 2018
23€600k€800krose
Pantelis Hatzidiakos
Serie A · 2024
27€2.5M€3.0Mrose
Matt Miazga
Laliga · 2022
27€2.0M€2.5Mrose
Timothy Chandler
Bundesliga · 2016
26€2.0M€5.0Mrose
Tyronne Ebuehi
Serie A · 2022
27€1.4M€2.0Mrose
Ángel Trujillo
Laliga · 2016
29€1.0M€500kfell

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
28 Jul 2025Kilmarnock FCLecce€930k€350k
30 Jul 2024IpswichKilmarnock FCUnknown€350k
31 May 2024Kilmarnock FCIpswichFree / loan€350k
1 Jul 2023IpswichKilmarnock FCFree / loan€200k
31 May 2023FleetwoodIpswichFree / loan€200k
31 Jan 2023IpswichFleetwoodFree / loan€100k
30 Jan 2023Burton AlbionIpswichFree / loan€100k
19 Aug 2022IpswichBurton AlbionFree / loan€100k
31 May 2022SalfordIpswichFree / loan€50k
21 Aug 2021IpswichSalfordFree / loan€50k
1 Jul 2021Ipswich Town U23IpswichUnknown€50k
1 May 2021Ayr UnitedIpswich Town U23Free / loan€50k
7 Jan 2021Ipswich Town U23Ayr UnitedFree / loanData unavailable
6 Jan 2020ChelmsfordIpswich Town U23Free / loanData unavailable
6 Dec 2019Ipswich Town U23ChelmsfordFree / loanData unavailable
5 Dec 2019HemelIpswich Town U23Free / loanData unavailable
8 Nov 2019Ipswich Town U23HemelFree / loanData unavailable
1 Jul 2018Ipswich U18Ipswich Town U23UnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2016Cherry Orchard FCIpswich U18Free / loanData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.

Corrie Ndaba · MoneyballAI