
Corrie Ndaba
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Corrie Ndaba's performance-implied value at EUR 0.6M-1.6M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.3M-1.2M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.4M-1.5M. Confidence is low: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Insufficient sample (< 900 league minutes)
| Performance | Average | 41.7th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 26.5 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €678k vs market €900k |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -10% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.93 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Low |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1269 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 539 (16% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.13
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 42 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.93 (rank 4)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1352
- Opponent strength
- 1525
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €423k – €1.5M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 74 pts; changed club; team strength up (+182 Elo); league level up (+252 Elo); relative output up 107% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +22% (IQR -39% to +36%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲Small sample: 539 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | US Lecce | Serie A | LB | 14 | 539 | 16% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.13 | 1525 | 1352 | 0.93 |
| 2024/25 | Kilmarnock FC | Scottish Premiership | LB | 31 | 2659 | 90% | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.06 | 1238 | 1171 | 0.34 |
| 2023/24 | Kilmarnock FC | Scottish Premiership | LB | 23 | 1531 | 52% | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.14 | 1332 | 1243 | 0.34 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Italy Cup | US Lecce | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Scottish Fa Cup | Kilmarnock FC | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | Kilmarnock FC | 1 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 1509 |
| 2023/24 | Scottish Fa Cup | Kilmarnock FC | 3 | 205 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Noë Dussenne Serie A · 2017 | 25 | €1.0M | €650k | fell |
| Jesper Juelsgaard Ligue 1 · 2015 | 26 | €1.0M | €400k | fell |
| Stefan Simic Serie A · 2018 | 23 | €600k | €800k | rose |
| Pantelis Hatzidiakos Serie A · 2024 | 27 | €2.5M | €3.0M | rose |
| Matt Miazga Laliga · 2022 | 27 | €2.0M | €2.5M | rose |
| Timothy Chandler Bundesliga · 2016 | 26 | €2.0M | €5.0M | rose |
| Tyronne Ebuehi Serie A · 2022 | 27 | €1.4M | €2.0M | rose |
| Ángel Trujillo Laliga · 2016 | 29 | €1.0M | €500k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 Jul 2025 | Kilmarnock FC | Lecce | €930k | €350k |
| 30 Jul 2024 | Ipswich | Kilmarnock FC | Unknown | €350k |
| 31 May 2024 | Kilmarnock FC | Ipswich | Free / loan | €350k |
| 1 Jul 2023 | Ipswich | Kilmarnock FC | Free / loan | €200k |
| 31 May 2023 | Fleetwood | Ipswich | Free / loan | €200k |
| 31 Jan 2023 | Ipswich | Fleetwood | Free / loan | €100k |
| 30 Jan 2023 | Burton Albion | Ipswich | Free / loan | €100k |
| 19 Aug 2022 | Ipswich | Burton Albion | Free / loan | €100k |
| 31 May 2022 | Salford | Ipswich | Free / loan | €50k |
| 21 Aug 2021 | Ipswich | Salford | Free / loan | €50k |
| 1 Jul 2021 | Ipswich Town U23 | Ipswich | Unknown | €50k |
| 1 May 2021 | Ayr United | Ipswich Town U23 | Free / loan | €50k |
| 7 Jan 2021 | Ipswich Town U23 | Ayr United | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 6 Jan 2020 | Chelmsford | Ipswich Town U23 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 6 Dec 2019 | Ipswich Town U23 | Chelmsford | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 5 Dec 2019 | Hemel | Ipswich Town U23 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 8 Nov 2019 | Ipswich Town U23 | Hemel | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Ipswich U18 | Ipswich Town U23 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Cherry Orchard FC | Ipswich U18 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.