Leo Greiml
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Leo Greiml's performance-implied value at EUR 0.5M-0.9M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.3M-0.8M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.5M-1.6M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 96
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 21.2th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 25 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €368k vs market €900k |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | -6% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.43 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Very High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1135 (37% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.08
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.11
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 21 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.43 (rank 15)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1118
- Opponent strength
- 1343
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €466k – €1.6M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 47 pts.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +3% (IQR -20% to +71%).
Risk profile
Overall: Very High
- ⚠Limited sample: 1135 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.43 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 82 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 65%–166%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 78%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | NAC Breda | Eredivisie | CB | 14 | 1135 | 37% | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.11 | 1343 | 1118 | 0.43 |
| 2024/25 | NAC Breda | Eredivisie | CB | 29 | 2588 | 85% | 2 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.10 | 1309 | 1125 | 0.50 |
| 2022/23 | FC Schalke 04 | Bundesliga | CB | 7 | 356 | 12% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 1555 | 1354 | 1.04 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Knvb Beker | NAC Breda | 1 | 45 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Knvb Beker | NAC Breda | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Adejo Super League 1 · 2016 | 27 | €600k | €400k | fell |
| Derek Cornelius Super League 1 · 2023 | 26 | €1.2M | €5.0M | rose |
| Burak Öksüz Super Lig · 2023 | 27 | €750k | €800k | flat |
| James Penrice Scottish Premiership · 2023 | 25 | €425k | €1.8M | rose |
| Apostolos Diamantis Super League 1 · 2022 | 22 | €600k | €350k | fell |
| Triantafyllos Pasalidis Super League 1 · 2020 | 24 | €550k | €700k | rose |
| Aleksey Gritsaenko Premier Liga · 2021 | 26 | €700k | €700k | flat |
| Kevin Holt Scottish Premiership · 2018 | 25 | €350k | €300k | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Aug 2024 | FC Schalke 04 | NAC Breda | Unknown | €400k |
| 1 Jul 2022 | Rapid Vienna | FC Schalke 04 | Free / loan | €2.5M |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Rapid Wien II | Rapid Vienna | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2018 | St. Pölten U18 | Rapid Wien II | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2017 | St. Pölten U16 | St. Pölten U18 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2016 | St. Pölten U15 | St. Pölten U16 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2014 | Horn Youth | St. Pölten U15 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.