Oğulcan Ülgün
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Oğulcan Ülgün's performance-implied value at EUR 0.4M-0.6M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.3M-0.9M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.5M-1.1M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 2.07x the positional average in the league (1621 minutes, league coefficient 0.40). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 77
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 18th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 28.1 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €415k vs market €1.2M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -35% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.4 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1621 (53% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.44
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.45
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 18 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.40 (rank 18)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1161
- Opponent strength
- 1289
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €491k – €1.1M
Trajectory drivers: changed club; team strength down (-67 Elo); relative output up 79% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -21% (IQR -39% to +14%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ⚠Limited sample: 1621 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.40 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 35 (MID)
- Relative output kept
- 77%–144%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 69%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Gençlerbirliği Spor Kulübü | Super Lig | CM | 25 | 1621 | 53% | 4 | 4 | 0.44 | 0.45 | 1289 | 1160 | 0.40 |
| 2024/25 | Konyaspor | Super Lig | CM | 29 | 1555 | 48% | 2 | 3 | 0.29 | 0.25 | 1282 | 1228 | 0.39 |
| 2023/24 | Konyaspor | Super Lig | AM | 33 | 1761 | 51% | 1 | 1 | 0.10 | 0.21 | 1311 | 1284 | 0.45 |
| 2022/23 | Konyaspor | Super Lig | DM | 18 | 531 | 16% | 2 | 0 | 0.34 | 0.21 | 1344 | 1355 | 0.50 |
| 2021/22 | Konyaspor | Super Lig | DM | 22 | 660 | 19% | 1 | 1 | 0.27 | 0.15 | 1243 | 1330 | 0.42 |
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thaciano Super Lig · 2022 | 27 | €800k | €2.0M | rose |
| Furkan Soyalp Super Lig · 2023 | 28 | €1.2M | €400k | fell |
| Maksim Kuzmin Premier Liga · 2024 | 28 | €700k | €800k | flat |
| José María Cases Super League 1 · 2014 | 28 | €750k | €500k | fell |
| Görkem Sağlam Super Lig · 2024 | 26 | €850k | €800k | flat |
| Vyacheslav Yakimov Premier Liga · 2024 | 26 | €1.0M | €600k | fell |
| Lance Duijvestijn Eredivisie · 2024 | 25 | €700k | €800k | flat |
| Recep Niyaz Super Lig · 2021 | 26 | €1.4M | €850k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Jul 2025 | Konyaspor | Genclerbirligi | €158k | €1.4M |
| 1 Jul 2021 | Altinordu | Konyaspor | €337k | €950k |
| 1 Jan 2017 | Altinordu U21 | Altinordu | Unknown | €25k |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Altinordu Yth | Altinordu U21 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 4 Jan 2013 | Bucaspor Yth | Altinordu Yth | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 13 Feb 2009 | Ceylanspor Yth | Bucaspor Yth | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.