Emanuele Valeri
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Emanuele Valeri's performance-implied value at EUR 2.6M-8.2M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.2M-3.2M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.4M-3.7M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.75x the positional average in the league (2646 minutes, league coefficient 0.93). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 72
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 64.9th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 27.6 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €2.0M vs market €3.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -15% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.93 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2646 (77% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.07
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.17
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 65 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.93 (rank 4)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1374
- Opponent strength
- 1499
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €1.4M – €3.7M
Trajectory drivers: role change LB -> LM; relative output down 61% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -6% (IQR -36% to +33%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Parma Calcio 1913 | Serie A | LM | 34 | 2646 | 77% | 0 | 2 | 0.07 | 0.17 | 1499 | 1374 | 0.93 |
| 2024/25 | Parma Calcio 1913 | Serie A | LB | 35 | 2879 | 84% | 2 | 6 | 0.25 | 0.28 | 1510 | 1342 | 0.99 |
| 2023/24 | Frosinone Calcio | Serie A | LM | 16 | 1178 | 34% | 0 | 2 | 0.15 | 0.30 | 1501 | 1308 | 0.98 |
| 2022/23 | US Cremonese | Serie A | LM | 37 | 2791 | 82% | 2 | 3 | 0.16 | 0.29 | 1481 | 1269 | 0.94 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Italy Cup | Parma Calcio 1913 | 1 | 90 | 0 | 2 | — |
| 2024/25 | Italy Cup | Parma Calcio 1913 | 1 | 67 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Italy Cup | US Cremonese | 5 | 288 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luca Rigoni Serie A · 2013 | 29 | €3.8M | €6.5M | rose |
| Réginal Goreux Premier Liga · 2014 | 26 | €2.8M | €1.3M | fell |
| Neto Borges Ligue 1 · 2024 | 28 | €3.0M | €3.0M | flat |
| Konstantin Vassiljev Premier Liga · 2013 | 29 | €2.0M | €600k | fell |
| Lucas Castro Serie A · 2016 | 27 | €5.5M | €7.0M | rose |
| Kadir Bekmezci Super Lig · 2013 | 28 | €2.8M | €2.0M | fell |
| Antoine Makoumbou Serie A · 2024 | 26 | €4.5M | €4.0M | flat |
| Santi Comesaña Laliga · 2022 | 26 | €4.0M | €6.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2024 | Frosinone | Parma | Free / loan | €2.3M |
| 31 Jan 2024 | Cremonese | Frosinone | Free / loan | €2.3M |
| 10 Sept 2020 | Cesena | Cremonese | €100k | €250k |
| 31 Jul 2018 | Lecce | RC Cesena | Free / loan | €125k |
| 18 Jul 2017 | Rieti | Lecce | Free / loan | €125k |
| 4 Jul 2016 | Urbetevere | Rieti | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 30 Jun 2016 | Vescovio | Urbetevere | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2015 | Urbetevere | Vescovio | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2013 | Lazio Youth | Urbetevere | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.