Lewis Smith
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Lewis Smith's performance-implied value at EUR 0.3M-0.4M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.1M-0.5M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.3M-0.6M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 2.02x the positional average in the league (1625 minutes, league coefficient 0.31). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 94
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 2.9th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 26.3 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €160k vs market €500k |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -10% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.31 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1625 (55% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.44
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.45
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 3 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.31 (rank 26)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 981
- Opponent strength
- 1208
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €272k – €622k
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -9% (IQR -31% to +14%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲League level coefficient 0.31 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠Limited sample: 1625 league minutes last season.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 11 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 10 (MID)
- Relative output kept
- 77%–107%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 80%
- Confidence
- Low
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Livingston FC | Scottish Premiership | RM | 30 | 1625 | 55% | 7 | 1 | 0.44 | 0.45 | 1208 | 981 | 0.31 |
| 2020/21 | Hamilton Academical FC | Scottish Premiership | RM | 5 | 317 | 11% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.24 | 1376 | 1192 | 0.54 |
| 2019/20 | Hamilton Academical FC | Scottish Premiership | RM | 23 | 1533 | 57% | 3 | 2 | 0.29 | 0.35 | 1324 | 1163 | 0.52 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Scottish Fa Cup | Livingston FC | 1 | 83 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Scottish Fa Cup | Hamilton Academical FC | 1 | 90 | 1 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Danny Bejarano Super League 1 · 2023 | 29 | €350k | €350k | flat |
| Recep Niyaz Super Lig · 2021 | 26 | €1.4M | €850k | fell |
| Yegor Demchenko Premier Liga · 2023 | 26 | €300k | €250k | flat |
| Vitaliy Dakhnovskyi Premier Liga · 2024 | 25 | €300k | €500k | rose |
| Artur Avagimyan Premier Liga · 2024 | 27 | €500k | €300k | fell |
| Thaciano Super Lig · 2022 | 27 | €800k | €2.0M | rose |
| Beka Vachiberadze Premier Liga · 2024 | 28 | €350k | €350k | flat |
| Paschalis Staikos Super League 1 · 2021 | 25 | €350k | €250k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2024 | Hamilton Acad. | Livingston FC | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Nov 2019 | Hamilton A. Re. | Hamilton Acad. | Unknown | €50k |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Hamilton A. U20 | Hamilton A. Re. | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Hamilton A. U17 | Hamilton A. U20 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.