Jean-Ricner Bellegarde
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Jean-Ricner Bellegarde's performance-implied value at EUR 9.3M-22.3M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 7.7M-16.8M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 5.0M-12.7M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.09x the positional average in the league (1250 minutes, league coefficient 1.30). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 14
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | High | 83.4th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 28 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €11.2M vs market €16.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -50% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Small | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 1.3 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1250 (37% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.14
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.24
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 83 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 1.30 (rank 1)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1425
- Opponent strength
- 1613
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €5.0M – €12.7M
Trajectory drivers: team strength down (-77 Elo); relative output down 49% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -24% (IQR -41% to +3%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 1250 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Wolverhampton Wanderers | Premier League | CM | 26 | 1250 | 37% | 1 | 1 | 0.14 | 0.24 | 1613 | 1425 | 1.30 |
| 2024/25 | Wolverhampton Wanderers | Premier League | CM | 35 | 1684 | 49% | 2 | 7 | 0.48 | 0.45 | 1562 | 1501 | 1.23 |
| 2023/24 | Wolverhampton Wanderers | Premier League | CM | 22 | 957 | 28% | 2 | 1 | 0.28 | 0.27 | 1618 | 1467 | 1.14 |
| 2023/24 | RC Strasbourg Alsace | Ligue 1 | CM | 3 | 270 | 9% | 2 | 2 | 1.33 | 0.52 | 1471 | 1393 | 0.87 |
| 2022/23 | RC Strasbourg Alsace | Ligue 1 | CM | 30 | 2429 | 71% | 2 | 9 | 0.41 | 0.40 | 1450 | 1441 | 0.82 |
| 2021/22 | RC Strasbourg Alsace | Ligue 1 | DM | 36 | 2349 | 69% | 2 | 3 | 0.19 | 0.18 | 1447 | 1503 | 0.86 |
| 2020/21 | RC Strasbourg Alsace | Ligue 1 | CM | 35 | 2051 | 60% | 1 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.16 | 1452 | 1380 | 0.75 |
| 2019/20 | RC Strasbourg Alsace | Ligue 1 | CM | 24 | 1499 | 62% | 0 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.13 | 1440 | 1430 | 0.82 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | World Cup | Haiti | 3 | 261 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | Fa Cup | Wolverhampton Wanderers | 2 | 91 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Fa Cup | Wolverhampton Wanderers | 3 | 170 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Fa Cup | Wolverhampton Wanderers | 4 | 306 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | RC Strasbourg Alsace | 3 | 161 | 0 | 0 | 1387 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stuart Armstrong Premier League · 2019 | 27 | €8.0M | €8.0M | flat |
| Mario Lemina Premier League · 2019 | 26 | €15.0M | €10.0M | fell |
| Jeffrey Schlupp Premier League · 2020 | 28 | €9.5M | €8.0M | flat |
| Jeff Hendrick Premier League · 2021 | 29 | €9.0M | €1.5M | fell |
| Orel Mangala Premier League · 2023 | 25 | €16.0M | €18.0M | flat |
| Lewis Cook Premier League · 2023 | 26 | €10.0M | €15.0M | rose |
| Okay Yokuşlu Premier League · 2021 | 27 | €7.5M | €3.0M | fell |
| Pedro Obiang Premier League · 2018 | 26 | €8.0M | €5.5M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Sept 2023 | R. Strasbourg | Wolves | €15.0M | €10.0M |
| 2 Jul 2019 | Lens | R. Strasbourg | €2.0M | €1.5M |
| 28 Jul 2016 | RC Lens B | Lens | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2015 | RC Lens U17 | RC Lens B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Oct 2013 | Le Mans Yth. | RC Lens U17 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.