Mario Lemina
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Mario Lemina's performance-implied value at EUR 1.7M-4.9M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.1M-5.3M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.1M-2.3M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.96x the positional average in the league (1683 minutes, league coefficient 0.40). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Contract end date unavailable: range widened by 15% each side.
Bargain Index: 6
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | High | 82.8th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 32.8 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €2.6M vs market €4.5M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -65% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.4 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1683 (55% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.16
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.12
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 83 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.40 (rank 18)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1501
- Opponent strength
- 1280
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €1.1M – €2.3M
Trajectory drivers: changed club; league level down (-199 Elo); relative output down 42% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -56% (IQR -68% to -49%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲Age 33: resale value typically declines.
- ⚠Limited sample: 1683 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.40 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘContract end date unavailable (or stale in source).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 35 (MID)
- Relative output kept
- 77%–144%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 69%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Galatasaray | Super Lig | DM | 27 | 1683 | 55% | 2 | 1 | 0.16 | 0.12 | 1280 | 1501 | 0.40 |
| 2024/25 | Wolverhampton Wanderers | Premier League | DM | 17 | 1363 | 40% | 1 | 3 | 0.26 | 0.26 | 1570 | 1501 | 1.23 |
| 2024/25 | Galatasaray | Super Lig | DM | 12 | 802 | 25% | 1 | 2 | 0.34 | 0.13 | 1310 | 1557 | 0.39 |
| 2023/24 | Wolverhampton Wanderers | Premier League | DM | 35 | 2975 | 87% | 4 | 1 | 0.15 | 0.14 | 1572 | 1467 | 1.14 |
| 2022/23 | Wolverhampton Wanderers | Premier League | DM | 19 | 1303 | 38% | 0 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.11 | 1608 | 1497 | 1.23 |
| 2022/23 | OGC Nice | Ligue 1 | DM | 14 | 844 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 1420 | 1519 | 0.82 |
| 2021/22 | OGC Nice | Ligue 1 | DM | 32 | 1975 | 58% | 2 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.10 | 1447 | 1493 | 0.86 |
| 2020/21 | Fulham FC | Premier League | DM | 28 | 1705 | 50% | 1 | 1 | 0.11 | 0.17 | 1591 | 1352 | 1.19 |
| 2019/20 | Galatasaray | Super Lig | DM | 20 | 1538 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 1339 | 1384 | 0.45 |
| 2018/19 | Southampton FC | Premier League | DM | 21 | 1615 | 47% | 1 | 1 | 0.11 | 0.13 | 1546 | 1486 | 1.22 |
| 2017/18 | Southampton FC | Premier League | DM | 25 | 1721 | 50% | 1 | 1 | 0.10 | 0.11 | 1540 | 1459 | 1.15 |
| 2016/17 | Juventus FC | Serie A | DM | 19 | 901 | 26% | 1 | 1 | 0.20 | 0.07 | 1487 | 1832 | 0.88 |
| 2015/16 | Juventus FC | Serie A | DM | 10 | 728 | 21% | 2 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.08 | 1440 | 1808 | 0.95 |
| 2015/16 | Olympique Marseille | Ligue 1 | DM | 4 | 335 | 10% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 1368 | 1458 | 0.78 |
| 2014/15 | Olympique Marseille | Ligue 1 | DM | 23 | 1257 | 37% | 2 | 0 | 0.14 | 0.15 | 1453 | 1527 | 0.80 |
| 2013/14 | Olympique Marseille | Ligue 1 | DM | 14 | 690 | 20% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 1471 | 1471 | 0.79 |
| 2013/14 | FC Lorient | Ligue 1 | CM | 4 | 311 | 9% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.18 | 1450 | 1407 | 0.79 |
| 2012/13 | FC Lorient | Ligue 1 | DM | 10 | 502 | 15% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 1459 | 1457 | 0.88 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | Galatasaray | 9 | 730 | 1 | 1 | 1660 |
| 2025/26 | Africa Cup Of Nations | Gabon | 3 | 237 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Fa Cup | Wolverhampton Wanderers | 4 | 286 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | OGC Nice | 2 | 168 | 0 | 0 | 1517 |
| 2020/21 | Fa Cup | Fulham FC | 1 | 82 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Champions League | Galatasaray | 4 | 331 | 0 | 0 | 1656 |
| 2017/18 | Fa Cup | Southampton FC | 4 | 280 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2016/17 | Uefa Champions League | Juventus FC | 7 | 270 | 0 | 0 | 1581 |
| 2016/17 | Supercoppa Italiana | Juventus FC | 1 | 41 | 0 | 0 | 1556 |
| 2016/17 | Italy Cup | Juventus FC | 2 | 16 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2015/16 | Italy Cup | Juventus FC | 2 | 169 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2015/16 | Uefa Champions League | Juventus FC | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1627 |
| 2013/14 | Uefa Champions League | Olympique Marseille | 4 | 196 | 0 | 0 | 1745 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jens Jønsson Super League 1 · 2024 | 31 | €2.5M | €800k | fell |
| Willian Arão Super League 1 · 2024 | 32 | €2.5M | €800k | fell |
| Viktor Claesson Superliga · 2024 | 32 | €4.5M | €1.0M | fell |
| Sergiy Sydorchuk Premier Liga · 2022 | 31 | €5.0M | €2.0M | fell |
| Marek Hamsik Super Lig · 2022 | 35 | €2.5M | €1.2M | fell |
| Taras Stepanenko Premier Liga · 2021 | 32 | €7.5M | €4.0M | fell |
| Anastasios Bakasetas Super Lig · 2024 | 31 | €6.0M | €3.0M | fell |
| Kris Commons Scottish Premiership · 2015 | 32 | €3.5M | €2.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 Feb 2025 | Wolves | Galatasaray | €2.5M | €9.0M |
| 13 Jan 2023 | Nice | Wolves | €11.0M | €7.0M |
| 24 Jul 2021 | Southampton | Nice | €5.5M | €10.0M |
| 31 May 2021 | Fulham | Southampton | Free / loan | €10.0M |
| 30 Aug 2020 | Southampton | Fulham | Free / loan | €10.0M |
| 3 Aug 2020 | Galatasaray | Southampton | Free / loan | €10.5M |
| 2 Sept 2019 | Southampton | Galatasaray | Free / loan | €15.0M |
| 8 Aug 2017 | Juventus | Southampton | €17.3M | €7.5M |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Marseille | Juventus | €9.8M | €4.0M |
| 30 Jun 2016 | Juventus | Marseille | Free / loan | €4.0M |
| 31 Aug 2015 | Marseille | Juventus | Free / loan | €3.0M |
| 2 Sept 2013 | FC Lorient | Marseille | €4.0M | €1.0M |
| 18 Jan 2013 | Lorient B | FC Lorient | Unknown | €150k |
| 1 Jul 2012 | FC Lorient U19 | Lorient B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.