Gaius Makouta
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Gaius Makouta's performance-implied value at EUR 0.8M-1.7M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.5M-1.6M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.8M-2.0M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.65x the positional average in the league (2673 minutes, league coefficient 0.40). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 75
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 35th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 28.9 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €632k vs market €2.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -37% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.4 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2673 (87% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.03
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.08
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 35 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.40 (rank 18)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1229
- Opponent strength
- 1269
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €793k – €2.0M
Trajectory drivers: role change CM -> DM.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -38% (IQR -46% to -29%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.40 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 35 (MID)
- Relative output kept
- 77%–144%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 69%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Alanyaspor | Super Lig | DM | 33 | 2673 | 87% | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.08 | 1269 | 1229 | 0.40 |
| 2024/25 | Alanyaspor | Super Lig | CM | 34 | 2430 | 75% | 1 | 3 | 0.15 | 0.15 | 1282 | 1247 | 0.39 |
| 2023/24 | Boavista FC | Liga Portugal | CM | 30 | 2335 | 76% | 2 | 2 | 0.15 | 0.18 | 1384 | 1230 | 0.58 |
| 2022/23 | Boavista FC | Liga Portugal | CM | 32 | 2743 | 90% | 2 | 6 | 0.26 | 0.29 | 1415 | 1351 | 0.68 |
| 2021/22 | Boavista FC | Liga Portugal | CM | 31 | 2616 | 85% | 2 | 3 | 0.17 | 0.19 | 1364 | 1357 | 0.67 |
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dario Saric Super Lig · 2024 | 27 | €1.8M | €700k | fell |
| Artem Timofeev Premier Liga · 2022 | 28 | €2.0M | €2.5M | rose |
| Nicolai Poulsen Superliga · 2022 | 29 | €800k | €700k | flat |
| Stelios Kitsiou Super Lig · 2022 | 29 | €1.0M | €550k | fell |
| Magnus Lekven Superliga · 2016 | 28 | €1.0M | €500k | fell |
| Simon Olsson Eredivisie · 2024 | 27 | €3.0M | €2.0M | fell |
| Gökhan Gül Super Lig · 2024 | 26 | €2.0M | €1.3M | fell |
| Miguel Cardoso Super Lig · 2024 | 30 | €2.5M | €1.5M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Jul 2024 | Boavista | Alanyaspor | Free / loan | €3.0M |
| 27 Jul 2021 | Braga B | Boavista | €300k | €600k |
| 30 Jun 2021 | Beroe | Braga B | Free / loan | €600k |
| 17 Jan 2020 | Braga B | Beroe | Free / loan | €500k |
| 26 Jan 2019 | SC Covilhã | Braga B | €100k | €375k |
| 7 Jul 2017 | Aris Saloniki | SC Covilhã | Free / loan | €50k |
| 31 Jan 2017 | Longford Town | Aris Saloniki | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 29 Jul 2016 | US Créteil-Lusitanos U19 | Longford Town | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2015 | Le Havre U19 | US Créteil-Lusitanos U19 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.