
Alexander Bah
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Alexander Bah's performance-implied value at EUR 1.4M-6.0M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 2.5M-6.5M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 2.0M-5.9M. Confidence is low: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Insufficient sample (< 900 league minutes)
| Performance | Above average | 60.4th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 28.6 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €4.8M vs market €7.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -51% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.58 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Very High | |
| Data confidence | Low |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1269 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 474 (16% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.38
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.10
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 60 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.58 (rank 9)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1634
- Opponent strength
- 1265
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €2.0M – €5.9M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 31 pts.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -54% (IQR -67% to -30%).
Risk profile
Overall: Very High
- ▲Small sample: 474 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.58 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 66 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 57%–168%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 76%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | SL Benfica | Liga Portugal | RB | 9 | 474 | 15% | 2 | 0 | 0.38 | 0.10 | 1265 | 1634 | 0.58 |
| 2024/25 | SL Benfica | Liga Portugal | RB | 18 | 1416 | 46% | 0 | 2 | 0.13 | 0.09 | 1334 | 1632 | 0.51 |
| 2023/24 | SL Benfica | Liga Portugal | RB | 19 | 1520 | 50% | 2 | 3 | 0.30 | 0.14 | 1351 | 1603 | 0.58 |
| 2022/23 | SL Benfica | Liga Portugal | RB | 28 | 1884 | 62% | 1 | 5 | 0.29 | 0.09 | 1362 | 1718 | 0.68 |
| 2020/21 | Sönderjyske Fodbold | Superliga | RM | 12 | 1000 | 51% | 4 | 3 | 0.63 | 0.48 | 1291 | 1188 | 0.43 |
| 2019/20 | Sönderjyske Fodbold | Superliga | RB | 24 | 2057 | 88% | 0 | 2 | 0.09 | 0.11 | 1271 | 1184 | 0.41 |
| 2018/19 | Sönderjyske Fodbold | Superliga | RW | 16 | 1138 | 49% | 2 | 1 | 0.24 | 0.27 | 1322 | 1243 | 0.44 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League | SL Benfica | 7 | 500 | 1 | 1 | 1624 |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Europa League | SL Benfica | 6 | 505 | 0 | 0 | 1514 |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Champions League | SL Benfica | 3 | 194 | 0 | 0 | 1646 |
| 2023/24 | Supercup Candido De Oliveira | SL Benfica | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1744 |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Champions League | SL Benfica | 8 | 657 | 0 | 2 | 1577 |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | SL Benfica | 2 | 35 | 0 | 0 | 1494 |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Europa League | SK Slavia Prague | 6 | 495 | 0 | 0 | 1674 |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | Sönderjyske Fodbold | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1505 |
| 2019/20 | Oddset Pokalen | Sönderjyske Fodbold | 5 | 472 | 0 | 3 | — |
| 2018/19 | Oddset Pokalen | Sönderjyske Fodbold | 3 | 170 | 1 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jorge Sánchez Liga Portugal · 2024 | 27 | €3.5M | €2.0M | fell |
| Léo Dubois Super Lig · 2023 | 29 | €5.5M | €2.0M | fell |
| Wendell Liga Portugal · 2022 | 29 | €5.0M | €7.0M | rose |
| Gilberto Liga Portugal · 2023 | 30 | €4.0M | €2.5M | fell |
| Yevgen Khacheridi Premier Liga · 2017 | 30 | €5.5M | €1.8M | fell |
| Mikael Lustig Scottish Premiership · 2014 | 28 | €3.5M | €3.5M | flat |
| Caner Erkin Super Lig · 2017 | 29 | €4.5M | €1.5M | fell |
| Jozo Simunovic Scottish Premiership · 2020 | 26 | €2.5M | €500k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2022 | Slavia Praha | Benfica | €8.0M | €7.0M |
| 5 Jan 2021 | SönderjyskE | Slavia Praha | €1.8M | €2.5M |
| 7 Aug 2018 | HB Köge | SönderjyskE | €530k | €350k |
| 11 Aug 2016 | Naesby BK | HB Köge | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2016 | Naesby BK U19 | Naesby BK | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2014 | Naesby BK Youth | Naesby BK U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2013 | B1913 Youth | Naesby BK Youth | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.