Alexander Bah

28 yrs · Right-back (also RM, RW) · Denmark
SL Benfica · Liga Portugal · Foot: right · Height: 183 cm
Risk: Very HighConfidence: LowSample: LowDevelopment: LowContract: until 30 Jun 2029
Market value
€7.0M
Updated 7 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€2.5M – €6.5M
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€1.4M – €6.0M
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€2.0M – €5.9M
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€5.1M – €3.5M
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€2.5M – €6.5M
Model value (performance-implied)€1.4M – €6.0M
Projected value (24 months)€2.0M – €5.9M
Dashed line: current market value (€7.0M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Alexander Bah's performance-implied value at EUR 1.4M-6.0M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 2.5M-6.5M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 2.0M-5.9M. Confidence is low: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Bargain Index: not assigned

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

Insufficient sample (< 900 league minutes)

PerformanceAbove average60.4th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral)
AgeUnfavorable28.6 years
Acquisition costFavorableest. €4.8M vs market €7.0M
Expected appreciationVery low-51% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapVery negativeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationModerateleague coefficient 0.58
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskVery High
Data confidenceLow

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €14.0M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 1269 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
474 (16% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.38
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.10
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
60 (Above average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.58 (rank 9)
Team strength (Elo)
1634
Opponent strength
1265
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
declining
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€2.0M – €5.9M

Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 31 pts.

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -54% (IQR -67% to -30%).

Risk profile

Overall: Very High

  • ▲Small sample: 474 league minutes last season.
  • ⚠League level coefficient 0.58 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
  • ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
  • ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
  • ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Historical movers
66 (DEF)
Relative output kept
57%–168%
Held a regular role (900+ min)
76%
Confidence
Medium

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26SL BenficaLiga PortugalRB947415%200.380.10126516340.58
2024/25SL BenficaLiga PortugalRB18141646%020.130.09133416320.51
2023/24SL BenficaLiga PortugalRB19152050%230.300.14135116030.58
2022/23SL BenficaLiga PortugalRB28188462%150.290.09136217180.68
2020/21Sönderjyske FodboldSuperligaRM12100051%430.630.48129111880.43
2019/20Sönderjyske FodboldSuperligaRB24205788%020.090.11127111840.41
2018/19Sönderjyske FodboldSuperligaRW16113849%210.240.27132212430.44

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2024/25Uefa Champions LeagueSL Benfica7500111624
2023/24Uefa Europa LeagueSL Benfica6505001514
2023/24Uefa Champions LeagueSL Benfica3194001646
2023/24Supercup Candido De OliveiraSL Benfica190001744
2022/23Uefa Champions LeagueSL Benfica8657021577
2022/23Uefa Champions League QualifyingSL Benfica235001494
2020/21Uefa Europa LeagueSK Slavia Prague6495001674
2020/21Uefa Europa League QualifyingSönderjyske Fodbold190001505
2019/20Oddset PokalenSönderjyske Fodbold547203—
2018/19Oddset PokalenSönderjyske Fodbold317010—

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Jorge Sánchez
Liga Portugal · 2024
27€3.5M€2.0Mfell
Léo Dubois
Super Lig · 2023
29€5.5M€2.0Mfell
Wendell
Liga Portugal · 2022
29€5.0M€7.0Mrose
Gilberto
Liga Portugal · 2023
30€4.0M€2.5Mfell
Yevgen Khacheridi
Premier Liga · 2017
30€5.5M€1.8Mfell
Mikael Lustig
Scottish Premiership · 2014
28€3.5M€3.5Mflat
Caner Erkin
Super Lig · 2017
29€4.5M€1.5Mfell
Jozo Simunovic
Scottish Premiership · 2020
26€2.5M€500kfell

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
1 Jul 2022Slavia PrahaBenfica€8.0M€7.0M
5 Jan 2021SönderjyskESlavia Praha€1.8M€2.5M
7 Aug 2018HB KögeSönderjyskE€530k€350k
11 Aug 2016Naesby BKHB KögeUnknownData unavailable
1 Jan 2016Naesby BK U19Naesby BKUnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2014Naesby BK YouthNaesby BK U19UnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2013B1913 YouthNaesby BK YouthFree / loanData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.