Christian Manrique
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Christian Manrique's performance-implied value at EUR 0.3M-0.5M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.1M-0.6M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.3M-0.5M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 93
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 5.6th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 27.7 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €163k vs market €450k |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -13% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.43 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1702 (73% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.05
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.12
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 6 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.42 (rank 16)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1182
- Opponent strength
- 1225
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €276k – €533k
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -5% (IQR -17% to +0%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ⚠Limited sample: 1702 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.43 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 25 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 55%–230%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 68%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Panetolikos Agrinio | Super League 1 | LB | 21 | 1702 | 73% | 0 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.12 | 1225 | 1182 | 0.43 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Kypello Elladas | Panetolikos Agrinio | 5 | 273 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liam Gordon Scottish Premiership · 2023 | 27 | €500k | €450k | flat |
| Erik Marxen Superliga · 2018 | 28 | €400k | €400k | flat |
| Salvador Sánchez Super League 1 · 2022 | 27 | €450k | €650k | rose |
| Dmitriy Nagiyev Premier Liga · 2023 | 28 | €400k | €250k | fell |
| Diamantis Chouchoumis Super League 1 · 2023 | 29 | €350k | €350k | flat |
| Patrick Banggaard Superliga · 2020 | 26 | €400k | €300k | fell |
| Leandro Sosa Super League 1 · 2020 | 29 | €350k | €300k | flat |
| Jesper Böge Superliga · 2018 | 28 | €300k | €300k | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2025 | AD Alcorcón | Panetolikos | Free / loan | €200k |
| 6 Aug 2024 | Debrecen | AD Alcorcón | Free / loan | €500k |
| 19 Jul 2022 | Olympiakos N. | Debrecen | Free / loan | €450k |
| 12 Jul 2020 | Omonia Nicosia | Olympiakos N. | Free / loan | €325k |
| 12 Jul 2018 | Rayo B | Omonia Nicosia | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Rayo U19 | Rayo B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.