Maksim Sidorov
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Maksim Sidorov's performance-implied value at EUR 0.6M-1.0M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.2M-0.9M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.4M-0.8M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 74
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 25.5th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 28.3 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €485k vs market €900k |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -32% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.56 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1831 (68% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.05
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.12
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 26 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.56 (rank 10)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1279
- Opponent strength
- 1358
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €413k – €830k
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 17 pts; changed club; team strength up (+77 Elo); role change LB -> RB.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -17% (IQR -30% to +5%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.56 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠League level estimated mainly from squad values (few matches vs other leagues).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 25 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 48%–200%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 72%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | RFK Akhmat Grozny | Premier Liga | RB | 24 | 1831 | 68% | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.12 | 1358 | 1279 | 0.56 |
| 2024/25 | FC Orenburg | Premier Liga | LB | 26 | 2289 | 85% | 0 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.10 | 1308 | 1202 | 0.55 |
| 2023/24 | FC Orenburg | Premier Liga | RB | 17 | 1254 | 46% | 0 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.13 | 1353 | 1272 | 0.49 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Russian Cup | RFK Akhmat Grozny | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Russian Cup | FC Orenburg | 1 | 10 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Russian Cup | FC Orenburg | 8 | 557 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ondrej Celustka Super Lig · 2019 | 30 | €1.0M | €700k | fell |
| Maxime Biset Jupiler Pro League · 2014 | 28 | €1.0M | €500k | fell |
| Glenn Bijl Premier Liga · 2022 | 27 | €1.0M | €2.0M | rose |
| Francis N'Ganga Jupiler Pro League · 2013 | 28 | €700k | €600k | flat |
| Lucas Masoero Premier Liga · 2022 | 27 | €900k | €900k | flat |
| Marvin Baudry Jupiler Pro League · 2018 | 28 | €800k | €650k | flat |
| Ramon Leeuwin Eredivisie · 2015 | 28 | €750k | €900k | rose |
| Fabiano Liga Portugal · 2020 | 29 | €1.0M | €700k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2025 | Orenburg | Akhmat Grozny | €800k | €750k |
| 1 Jul 2023 | Kuban | Orenburg | Free / loan | €300k |
| 19 Feb 2019 | FK Dolgoprudnyi | Urozhay | Free / loan | €125k |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Kuban Krasnodar | FK Dolgoprudnyi | Free / loan | €100k |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Kuban 2 | Kuban Krasnodar | Unknown | €50k |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Kuban II | Kuban 2 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2015 | Kuban U19 | Kuban II | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.