Tijjani Noslin

27 yrs · Right winger (also ST) · Netherlands
Società Sportiva Lazio S.p.A. · Serie A · Foot: right · Height: 178 cm
Risk: ModerateConfidence: MediumSample: MediumDevelopment: LowContract: until 30 Jun 2029
Market value
€8.0M
Updated 7 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€4.8M – €10.3M
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€3.4M – €12.7M
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€3.0M – €9.6M
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€6.9M – €7.9M
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€4.8M – €10.3M
Model value (performance-implied)€3.4M – €12.7M
Projected value (24 months)€3.0M – €9.6M
Dashed line: current market value (€8.0M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Tijjani Noslin's performance-implied value at EUR 3.4M-12.7M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 4.8M-10.3M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 3.0M-9.6M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.04x the positional average in the league (1138 minutes, league coefficient 0.93). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Bargain Index: 14

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

PerformanceAbove average67.4th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral)
AgeNeutral27 years
Acquisition costNeutralest. €7.4M vs market €8.0M
Expected appreciationVery low-34% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapNegativeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationBig-five leagueleague coefficient 0.93
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskModerate
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €12.0M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
1138 (33% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.55
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.53
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
67 (Above average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.93 (rank 4)
Team strength (Elo)
1522
Opponent strength
1525
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
improving
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€3.0M – €9.6M

Trajectory drivers: team strength down (-84 Elo); role change RW -> ST.

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -33% (IQR -59% to -10%).

Risk profile

Overall: Moderate

  • ⚠Limited sample: 1138 league minutes last season.
  • ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Already playing in a big-five league.

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26Società Sportiva Lazio S.p.A.Serie AST29113833%430.550.53152515220.93
2024/25Società Sportiva Lazio S.p.A.Serie ARW3084525%220.430.36148216060.99
2023/24Hellas VeronaSerie AST17134639%540.600.84150113810.98
2023/24Fortuna Sittardia CombinatieEredivisieRW13102734%310.350.52137911900.48
2022/23Fortuna Sittardia CombinatieEredivisieRW31161053%520.390.48136912190.58
2021/22Fortuna Sittardia CombinatieEredivisieRW2480626%100.110.37135912490.60

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2025/26Italy CupSocietà Sportiva Lazio S.p.A.421110—
2024/25Uefa Europa LeagueSocietà Sportiva Lazio S.p.A.7320111524
2024/25Italy CupSocietà Sportiva Lazio S.p.A.211930—
2023/24Knvb BekerFortuna Sittardia Combinatie19011—
2021/22Knvb BekerFortuna Sittardia Combinatie210000—

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Alessio Cerci
Serie A · 2016
29€8.5M€2.0Mfell
Ciro Immobile
Serie A · 2016
26€10.0M€50.0Mrose
Gianluca Lapadula
Serie A · 2017
27€8.0M€5.0Mfell
Gonçalo Guedes
Laliga · 2024
28€15.0M€6.0Mfell
Marcus Ingvartsen
Bundesliga · 2023
27€5.5M€4.0Mfell
Alan Kasaev
Premier Liga · 2013
27€4.0M€4.5Mflat
Brown Ideye
Premier League · 2015
27€6.0M€5.0Mflat
Manolo Gabbiadini
Serie A · 2019
28€12.0M€5.0Mfell

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
1 Jul 2024Hellas VeronaLazio€16.8M€10.0M
23 Jan 2024Fortuna SittardHellas Verona€3.0M€900k
11 Aug 2021TOP OssFortuna SittardFree / loanData unavailable
1 Jul 2021DHSCTOP OssFree / loanData unavailable
1 Jul 2020HerculesDHSCFree / loanData unavailable
1 Jul 2019Hercules 2HerculesUnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2017FC Twente U19Hercules 2Free / loanData unavailable
1 Jul 2016RODA '23 Yth.FC Twente U19UnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2015OJC Yth.RODA '23 Yth.UnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2014Den Bosch Yth.OJC Yth.Free / loanData unavailable
1 Jul 2013AVV Swift Yth.Den Bosch Yth.Free / loanData unavailable
1 Jul 2012Buitenv. Yth.AVV Swift Yth.Free / loanData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.