
Tijjani Noslin
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Tijjani Noslin's performance-implied value at EUR 3.4M-12.7M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 4.8M-10.3M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 3.0M-9.6M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.04x the positional average in the league (1138 minutes, league coefficient 0.93). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 14
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 67.4th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 27 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €7.4M vs market €8.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -34% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.93 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1138 (33% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.55
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.53
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 67 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.93 (rank 4)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1522
- Opponent strength
- 1525
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €3.0M – €9.6M
Trajectory drivers: team strength down (-84 Elo); role change RW -> ST.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -33% (IQR -59% to -10%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 1138 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Società Sportiva Lazio S.p.A. | Serie A | ST | 29 | 1138 | 33% | 4 | 3 | 0.55 | 0.53 | 1525 | 1522 | 0.93 |
| 2024/25 | Società Sportiva Lazio S.p.A. | Serie A | RW | 30 | 845 | 25% | 2 | 2 | 0.43 | 0.36 | 1482 | 1606 | 0.99 |
| 2023/24 | Hellas Verona | Serie A | ST | 17 | 1346 | 39% | 5 | 4 | 0.60 | 0.84 | 1501 | 1381 | 0.98 |
| 2023/24 | Fortuna Sittardia Combinatie | Eredivisie | RW | 13 | 1027 | 34% | 3 | 1 | 0.35 | 0.52 | 1379 | 1190 | 0.48 |
| 2022/23 | Fortuna Sittardia Combinatie | Eredivisie | RW | 31 | 1610 | 53% | 5 | 2 | 0.39 | 0.48 | 1369 | 1219 | 0.58 |
| 2021/22 | Fortuna Sittardia Combinatie | Eredivisie | RW | 24 | 806 | 26% | 1 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.37 | 1359 | 1249 | 0.60 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Italy Cup | Società Sportiva Lazio S.p.A. | 4 | 211 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Europa League | Società Sportiva Lazio S.p.A. | 7 | 320 | 1 | 1 | 1524 |
| 2024/25 | Italy Cup | Società Sportiva Lazio S.p.A. | 2 | 119 | 3 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Knvb Beker | Fortuna Sittardia Combinatie | 1 | 90 | 1 | 1 | — |
| 2021/22 | Knvb Beker | Fortuna Sittardia Combinatie | 2 | 100 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alessio Cerci Serie A · 2016 | 29 | €8.5M | €2.0M | fell |
| Ciro Immobile Serie A · 2016 | 26 | €10.0M | €50.0M | rose |
| Gianluca Lapadula Serie A · 2017 | 27 | €8.0M | €5.0M | fell |
| Gonçalo Guedes Laliga · 2024 | 28 | €15.0M | €6.0M | fell |
| Marcus Ingvartsen Bundesliga · 2023 | 27 | €5.5M | €4.0M | fell |
| Alan Kasaev Premier Liga · 2013 | 27 | €4.0M | €4.5M | flat |
| Brown Ideye Premier League · 2015 | 27 | €6.0M | €5.0M | flat |
| Manolo Gabbiadini Serie A · 2019 | 28 | €12.0M | €5.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2024 | Hellas Verona | Lazio | €16.8M | €10.0M |
| 23 Jan 2024 | Fortuna Sittard | Hellas Verona | €3.0M | €900k |
| 11 Aug 2021 | TOP Oss | Fortuna Sittard | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2021 | DHSC | TOP Oss | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2020 | Hercules | DHSC | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Hercules 2 | Hercules | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2017 | FC Twente U19 | Hercules 2 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2016 | RODA '23 Yth. | FC Twente U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2015 | OJC Yth. | RODA '23 Yth. | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2014 | Den Bosch Yth. | OJC Yth. | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2013 | AVV Swift Yth. | Den Bosch Yth. | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2012 | Buitenv. Yth. | AVV Swift Yth. | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.