Nikita Kakkoev
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Nikita Kakkoev's performance-implied value at EUR 0.5M-0.8M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.2M-0.6M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.4M-1.0M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 84
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 23.3th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 26.9 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €314k vs market €800k |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -28% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.56 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Very High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1176 (44% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.08
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.11
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 23 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.56 (rank 10)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1176
- Opponent strength
- 1334
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €400k – €1.0M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 33 pts.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -10% (IQR -25% to +0%).
Risk profile
Overall: Very High
- ⚠Limited sample: 1176 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.56 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠League level estimated mainly from squad values (few matches vs other leagues).
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 25 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 48%–200%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 72%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | FK Nizhny Novgorod | Premier Liga | CB | 17 | 1176 | 44% | 0 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.11 | 1334 | 1176 | 0.56 |
| 2024/25 | FK Nizhny Novgorod | Premier Liga | CB | 26 | 2080 | 77% | 0 | 2 | 0.09 | 0.10 | 1301 | 1181 | 0.55 |
| 2023/24 | FK Nizhny Novgorod | Premier Liga | CB | 25 | 2011 | 74% | 1 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.09 | 1320 | 1164 | 0.49 |
| 2022/23 | FK Nizhny Novgorod | Premier Liga | CB | 21 | 1527 | 57% | 1 | 2 | 0.18 | 0.16 | 1338 | 1226 | 0.53 |
| 2021/22 | FK Nizhny Novgorod | Premier Liga | CB | 22 | 1751 | 65% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 1350 | 1260 | 0.52 |
| 2017/18 | AO FK Zenit Sankt-Peterburg | Premier Liga | CB | 1 | 9 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 1390 | 1581 | 0.75 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Russian Cup | FK Nizhny Novgorod | 3 | 183 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Russian Cup | FK Nizhny Novgorod | 4 | 175 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Russian Cup | FK Nizhny Novgorod | 5 | 401 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Russian Cup | FK Nizhny Novgorod | 5 | 423 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Russian Cup | FK Nizhny Novgorod | 2 | 117 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bruno Wilson Liga Portugal · 2024 | 28 | €900k | €900k | flat |
| Joris Kramer Eredivisie · 2023 | 27 | €650k | €2.0M | rose |
| Stefan Thesker Eredivisie · 2018 | 27 | €700k | €550k | fell |
| Yevgeniy Pasich Premier Liga · 2020 | 27 | €400k | €400k | flat |
| Mamadou Bagayoko Jupiler Pro League · 2017 | 27 | €750k | €500k | fell |
| Igor Kalinin Premier Liga · 2022 | 27 | €750k | €700k | flat |
| Thomas Lam Eredivisie · 2020 | 27 | €800k | €700k | flat |
| Patrick Banggaard Eredivisie · 2018 | 24 | €600k | €400k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2020 | Zenit 2 S-Pb | Nizhny Novgorod | €120k | €325k |
| 30 Jun 2020 | Tom Tomsk | Zenit 2 S-Pb | Free / loan | €325k |
| 21 Feb 2019 | Zenit 2 S-Pb | Tom Tomsk | Free / loan | €250k |
| 1 Jan 2017 | Zenit II | Zenit 2 S-Pb | Unknown | €50k |
| 31 Aug 2016 | Zenit U17 | Zenit II | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.