Joris Kramer

30 yrs · Centre-back · Netherlands
Go Ahead Eagles · Eredivisie · Foot: left · Height: 187 cm
Risk: LowConfidence: MediumSample: HighDevelopment: LowContract: until 30 Jun 2028
Market value
€1.8M
Updated 6 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€479k – €1.5M
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€606k – €1.1M
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€656k – €1.5M
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€917k – €649k
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€479k – €1.5M
Model value (performance-implied)€606k – €1.1M
Projected value (24 months)€656k – €1.5M
Dashed line: current market value (€1.8M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Joris Kramer's performance-implied value at EUR 0.6M-1.1M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.5M-1.5M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.7M-1.5M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Bargain Index: 44

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

PerformanceAverage37.9th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral)
AgeUnfavorable29.9 years
Acquisition costVery favorableest. €949k vs market €1.8M
Expected appreciationVery low-50% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapSmallweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationUncertainleague coefficient 0.43
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskLow
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €2.0M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
3015 (99% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.12
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.11
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
38 (Average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.43 (rank 15)
Team strength (Elo)
1245
Opponent strength
1307
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
improving
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€656k – €1.5M

Trajectory drivers: relative output up 142% vs positional peers.

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -31% (IQR -43% to -21%).

Risk profile

Overall: Low

  • ⚠League level coefficient 0.43 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Historical movers
82 (DEF)
Relative output kept
65%–166%
Held a regular role (900+ min)
78%
Confidence
Medium

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26Go Ahead EaglesEredivisieCB34301599%130.120.11130712450.43
2024/25Go Ahead EaglesEredivisieCB343047100%010.030.04130512970.50
2023/24Go Ahead EaglesEredivisieCB30256584%200.070.07135112540.48
2022/23NEC NijmegenEredivisieCB22115338%020.160.12135312660.58
2021/22Go Ahead EaglesEredivisieCB26219672%210.120.15136511880.60
2019/20AZ AlkmaarEredivisieCB1271%000.000.05134215420.62

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2025/26Uefa Europa LeagueGo Ahead Eagles8720011488
2025/26Knvb BekerGo Ahead Eagles333000—
2025/26Johan Cruijff SchaalGo Ahead Eagles190001632
2024/25Knvb BekerGo Ahead Eagles551000—
2024/25Uefa Conference League QualifyingGo Ahead Eagles2168001334
2023/24Knvb BekerGo Ahead Eagles323400—
2022/23Knvb BekerNEC Nijmegen221000—
2021/22Knvb BekerGo Ahead Eagles431500—
2020/21Knvb BekerSC Cambuur Leeuwarden221000—

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Aleksey Gritsaenko
Premier Liga · 2024
29€1.5M€1.0Mfell
Nejc Skubic
Super Lig · 2020
31€1.6M€1.5Mflat
Alexis Pérez
Super Lig · 2022
28€2.0M€2.5Mrose
Espen Ruud
Superliga · 2013
29€1.0M€600kfell
Jesper Lauridsen
Superliga · 2019
28€700k€350kfell
Nicky Devlin
Scottish Premiership · 2023
30€700k€500kfell
Guilherme
Super Lig · 2022
32€1.5M€700kfell
Aaron Meijers
Eredivisie · 2015
28€1.0M€750kfell

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
1 Jul 2023NEC NijmegenGo Ahead Eagles€250k€650k
1 Jul 2022AZ AlkmaarNEC NijmegenUnknown€650k
30 Jun 2022Go Ahead EaglesAZ AlkmaarFree / loan€650k
1 Jul 2021AZ AlkmaarGo Ahead EaglesFree / loan€300k
30 Jun 2021SC CambuurAZ AlkmaarFree / loan€300k
6 Oct 2020AZ AlkmaarSC CambuurFree / loan€300k
1 Jul 2019AZ Alkmaar U21AZ AlkmaarUnknown€200k
30 Jun 2017FC DordrechtAZ Alkmaar U21Free / loan€125k
1 Aug 2016AZ Alkmaar U21FC DordrechtFree / loan€100k
1 Jul 2015AZ U19AZ Alkmaar U21Unknown€100k
1 Jul 2013AZ U17AZ U19UnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2011AZ Alkmaar Yth.AZ U17UnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2009Foresters Yth.AZ Alkmaar Yth.Free / loanData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.