Gennaro Borrelli

26 yrs · Striker · Italy
Cagliari Calcio · Serie A · Foot: right · Height: 194 cm
Risk: ModerateConfidence: MediumSample: MediumDevelopment: LowContract: until 30 Jun 2029
Market value
€3.0M
Updated 7 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€1.7M – €4.3M
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€1.0M – €4.6M
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€1.6M – €5.1M
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€3.2M – €2.9M
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€1.7M – €4.3M
Model value (performance-implied)€1.0M – €4.6M
Projected value (24 months)€1.6M – €5.1M
Dashed line: current market value (€3.0M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Gennaro Borrelli's performance-implied value at EUR 1.0M-4.6M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.7M-4.3M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.6M-5.1M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.24x the positional average in the league (1272 minutes, league coefficient 0.93). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Bargain Index: 50

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

PerformanceAverage42.1th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral)
AgeNeutral26.3 years
Acquisition costNeutralest. €2.8M vs market €3.0M
Expected appreciationNeutral-7% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapNegativeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationBig-five leagueleague coefficient 0.93
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskModerate
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €3.0M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
1272 (37% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.42
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.63
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
42 (Average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.93 (rank 4)
Team strength (Elo)
1376
Opponent strength
1508
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
insufficient
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€1.6M – €5.1M

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -13% (IQR -32% to +3%).

Risk profile

Overall: Moderate

  • ⚠Limited sample: 1272 league minutes last season.
  • ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
  • ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Already playing in a big-five league.

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26Cagliari CalcioSerie AST27127237%510.420.63150813760.93
2023/24Frosinone CalcioSerie AST1231%000.001.60173913080.98

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2025/26Italy CupCagliari Calcio212511—
2023/24Italy CupFrosinone Calcio16500—

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Isaac Cuenca
Laliga · 2016
25€2.0M€1.5Mfell
Fredrik Jensen
Bundesliga · 2024
27€3.5M€2.0Mfell
Ezequiel Ponce
Laliga · 2023
26€2.5M€5.0Mrose
Diego Farias
Serie A · 2017
27€4.0M€4.5Mflat
Giovanni Sio
Ligue 1 · 2013
24€2.0M€2.0Mflat
Federico Bonazzoli
Serie A · 2024
27€2.5M€2.5Mflat
Luton Shelton
Super Lig · 2013
28€2.5M€1.4Mfell
Aboubakar Kamara
Super Lig · 2019
24€2.8M€2.0Mfell

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
10 Jul 2025BresciaCagliariFree / loan€2.2M
1 Jul 2024FrosinoneBrescia€3.5M€1.4M
30 Jun 2024BresciaFrosinoneFree / loan€1.4M
1 Sept 2023FrosinoneBresciaFree / loan€500k
1 Jul 2023PescaraFrosinone€330k€500k
30 Jun 2023FrosinonePescaraFree / loan€500k
29 Jul 2022PescaraFrosinoneFree / loan€375k
30 Jun 2022MonopoliPescaraFree / loan€375k
11 Aug 2021PescaraMonopoliFree / loan€425k
30 Jun 2021Juve StabiaPescaraFree / loan€425k
20 Jan 2021PescaraJuve StabiaFree / loan€375k
19 Jan 2021CosenzaPescaraFree / loan€375k
5 Oct 2020PescaraCosenzaFree / loan€375k
1 Jul 2019Pescara U19PescaraUnknown€100k
1 Jul 2017Pescara U17Pescara U19UnknownData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.