
Fredrik Jensen
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Fredrik Jensen's performance-implied value at EUR 0.7M-1.6M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.6M-2.0M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.7M-2.0M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.90x the positional average in the league (967 minutes, league coefficient 0.43). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 65
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 36.5th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 28.8 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €1.1M vs market €2.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -36% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Small | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.43 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 967 (41% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.19
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.36
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 37 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.42 (rank 16)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1255
- Opponent strength
- 1314
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €690k – €2.0M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 16 pts; changed club; team strength down (-149 Elo); league level down (-208 Elo); relative output up 49% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -23% (IQR -40% to -8%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 967 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.43 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 14 (MID)
- Relative output kept
- 67%–189%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 64%
- Confidence
- Low
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Aris Thessalonikis | Super League 1 | AM | 12 | 967 | 41% | 2 | 0 | 0.19 | 0.36 | 1314 | 1255 | 0.43 |
| 2024/25 | FC Augsburg | Bundesliga | AM | 20 | 760 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.24 | 1530 | 1404 | 0.94 |
| 2023/24 | FC Augsburg | Bundesliga | RW | 22 | 1352 | 44% | 2 | 5 | 0.47 | 0.54 | 1510 | 1393 | 1.01 |
| 2022/23 | FC Augsburg | Bundesliga | AM | 20 | 922 | 30% | 2 | 1 | 0.29 | 0.35 | 1532 | 1378 | 1.04 |
| 2021/22 | FC Augsburg | Bundesliga | AM | 12 | 410 | 13% | 0 | 1 | 0.22 | 0.42 | 1549 | 1425 | 1.05 |
| 2020/21 | FC Augsburg | Bundesliga | AM | 13 | 369 | 12% | 0 | 2 | 0.49 | 0.61 | 1634 | 1396 | 1.06 |
| 2019/20 | FC Augsburg | Bundesliga | AM | 10 | 454 | 15% | 1 | 1 | 0.40 | 0.50 | 1563 | 1408 | 1.06 |
| 2018/19 | FC Augsburg | Bundesliga | AM | 6 | 205 | 7% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.30 | 1542 | 1409 | 1.05 |
| 2017/18 | FC Twente Enschede | Eredivisie | AM | 30 | 2516 | 82% | 5 | 3 | 0.29 | 0.36 | 1327 | 1219 | 0.59 |
| 2016/17 | FC Twente Enschede | Eredivisie | AM | 25 | 1522 | 50% | 4 | 3 | 0.41 | 0.37 | 1338 | 1297 | 0.54 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Kypello Elladas | Aris Thessalonikis | 4 | 280 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2025/26 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | Aris Thessalonikis | 2 | 84 | 0 | 0 | 1357 |
| 2024/25 | Dfb Pokal | FC Augsburg | 1 | 7 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Dfb Pokal | FC Augsburg | 1 | 29 | 1 | 1 | — |
| 2021/22 | Dfb Pokal | FC Augsburg | 1 | 77 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Dfb Pokal | FC Augsburg | 1 | 25 | 2 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Dfb Pokal | FC Augsburg | 1 | 23 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2018/19 | Dfb Pokal | FC Augsburg | 3 | 60 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2017/18 | Knvb Beker | FC Twente Enschede | 4 | 331 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2016/17 | Knvb Beker | FC Twente Enschede | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amar Rahmanovic Super Lig · 2022 | 28 | €2.8M | €2.5M | flat |
| Anderson Esiti Super Lig · 2021 | 27 | €2.0M | €1.5M | fell |
| Alexander Merkel Super Lig · 2022 | 30 | €1.5M | €900k | fell |
| Bennard Kumordzi Jupiler Pro League · 2014 | 29 | €1.7M | €1.0M | fell |
| Konstantin Kuchaev Premier Liga · 2024 | 26 | €2.0M | €2.0M | flat |
| Furkan Soyalp Super Lig · 2022 | 27 | €1.0M | €800k | fell |
| Ghayas Zahid Super Lig · 2023 | 29 | €1.5M | €2.0M | rose |
| Efkan Bekiroğlu Super Lig · 2023 | 28 | €2.4M | €1.2M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Jul 2025 | Augsburg | Aris Saloniki | Free / loan | €3.5M |
| 1 Jul 2018 | FC Twente | Augsburg | €3.0M | €2.0M |
| 1 Jul 2016 | FC Twente U19 | FC Twente | Unknown | €100k |
| 1 Jan 2014 | HJK Youth | FC Twente U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2012 | Honka Youth | HJK Youth | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.