Fredrik Jensen

29 yrs · Attacking midfielder (also RW) · Finland
Aris Thessalonikis · Super League 1 · Foot: right · Height: 183 cm
Risk: ModerateConfidence: MediumSample: MediumDevelopment: LowContract: until 30 Jun 2028
Market value
€2.0M
Updated 7 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€565k – €2.0M
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€701k – €1.6M
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€690k – €2.0M
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€1.3M – €1.0M
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€565k – €2.0M
Model value (performance-implied)€701k – €1.6M
Projected value (24 months)€690k – €2.0M
Dashed line: current market value (€2.0M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Fredrik Jensen's performance-implied value at EUR 0.7M-1.6M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.6M-2.0M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.7M-2.0M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.90x the positional average in the league (967 minutes, league coefficient 0.43). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Bargain Index: 65

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

PerformanceAverage36.5th pct among MID peers (age-neutral)
AgeUnfavorable28.8 years
Acquisition costVery favorableest. €1.1M vs market €2.0M
Expected appreciationVery low-36% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapSmallweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationUncertainleague coefficient 0.43
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskModerate
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €3.5M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
967 (41% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.19
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.36
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
37 (Average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.42 (rank 16)
Team strength (Elo)
1255
Opponent strength
1314
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
improving
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€690k – €2.0M

Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 16 pts; changed club; team strength down (-149 Elo); league level down (-208 Elo); relative output up 49% vs positional peers.

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -23% (IQR -40% to -8%).

Risk profile

Overall: Moderate

  • ⚠Limited sample: 967 league minutes last season.
  • ⚠League level coefficient 0.43 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Historical movers
14 (MID)
Relative output kept
67%–189%
Held a regular role (900+ min)
64%
Confidence
Low

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26Aris ThessalonikisSuper League 1AM1296741%200.190.36131412550.43
2024/25FC AugsburgBundesligaAM2076025%000.000.24153014040.94
2023/24FC AugsburgBundesligaRW22135244%250.470.54151013931.01
2022/23FC AugsburgBundesligaAM2092230%210.290.35153213781.04
2021/22FC AugsburgBundesligaAM1241013%010.220.42154914251.05
2020/21FC AugsburgBundesligaAM1336912%020.490.61163413961.06
2019/20FC AugsburgBundesligaAM1045415%110.400.50156314081.06
2018/19FC AugsburgBundesligaAM62057%000.000.30154214091.05
2017/18FC Twente EnschedeEredivisieAM30251682%530.290.36132712190.59
2016/17FC Twente EnschedeEredivisieAM25152250%430.410.37133812970.54

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2025/26Kypello ElladasAris Thessalonikis428001—
2025/26Uefa Conference League QualifyingAris Thessalonikis284001357
2024/25Dfb PokalFC Augsburg1700—
2022/23Dfb PokalFC Augsburg12911—
2021/22Dfb PokalFC Augsburg17710—
2020/21Dfb PokalFC Augsburg12520—
2019/20Dfb PokalFC Augsburg12300—
2018/19Dfb PokalFC Augsburg36001—
2017/18Knvb BekerFC Twente Enschede433101—
2016/17Knvb BekerFC Twente Enschede19000—

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Amar Rahmanovic
Super Lig · 2022
28€2.8M€2.5Mflat
Anderson Esiti
Super Lig · 2021
27€2.0M€1.5Mfell
Alexander Merkel
Super Lig · 2022
30€1.5M€900kfell
Bennard Kumordzi
Jupiler Pro League · 2014
29€1.7M€1.0Mfell
Konstantin Kuchaev
Premier Liga · 2024
26€2.0M€2.0Mflat
Furkan Soyalp
Super Lig · 2022
27€1.0M€800kfell
Ghayas Zahid
Super Lig · 2023
29€1.5M€2.0Mrose
Efkan Bekiroğlu
Super Lig · 2023
28€2.4M€1.2Mfell

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
11 Jul 2025AugsburgAris SalonikiFree / loan€3.5M
1 Jul 2018FC TwenteAugsburg€3.0M€2.0M
1 Jul 2016FC Twente U19FC TwenteUnknown€100k
1 Jan 2014HJK YouthFC Twente U19UnknownData unavailable
1 Jan 2012Honka YouthHJK YouthFree / loanData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.