
Moritz Jenz
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Moritz Jenz's performance-implied value at EUR 1.9M-9.9M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.9M-4.9M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 2.1M-4.9M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 82
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 66th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 27.2 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €2.5M vs market €5.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -29% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.94 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1789 (59% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.05
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.05
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 66 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.94 (rank 3)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1372
- Opponent strength
- 1476
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €2.1M – €4.9M
Trajectory drivers: changed club; team strength down (-143 Elo); relative output up 119% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -39% (IQR -56% to +62%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 1789 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | VfL Wolfsburg | Bundesliga | CB | 22 | 1789 | 58% | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 1476 | 1372 | 0.94 |
| 2024/25 | 1.FSV Mainz 05 | Bundesliga | CB | 19 | 1601 | 52% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 1462 | 1515 | 0.94 |
| 2023/24 | VfL Wolfsburg | Bundesliga | CB | 22 | 1745 | 57% | 0 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.06 | 1529 | 1427 | 1.01 |
| 2022/23 | FC Schalke 04 | Bundesliga | CB | 11 | 945 | 31% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 1507 | 1354 | 1.04 |
| 2022/23 | Celtic FC | Scottish Premiership | CB | 11 | 846 | 28% | 2 | 0 | 0.21 | 0.07 | 1279 | 1588 | 0.40 |
| 2021/22 | FC Lorient | Ligue 1 | CB | 17 | 1384 | 40% | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.09 | 1442 | 1335 | 0.86 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Dfb Pokal | VfL Wolfsburg | 1 | 80 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Dfb Pokal | 1.FSV Mainz 05 | 1 | 45 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Dfb Pokal | VfL Wolfsburg | 1 | 120 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Champions League | Celtic FC | 6 | 540 | 0 | 0 | 1682 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Samir Caetano Serie A · 2021 | 27 | €5.0M | €7.0M | rose |
| Thibault De Smet Ligue 1 · 2024 | 26 | €4.0M | €1.8M | fell |
| Omar Alderete Laliga · 2024 | 28 | €5.0M | €13.0M | rose |
| César Montes Laliga · 2024 | 27 | €3.0M | €7.5M | rose |
| Mattia Bani Serie A · 2021 | 28 | €3.0M | €1.7M | fell |
| Thomas Foket Ligue 1 · 2024 | 30 | €6.0M | €300k | fell |
| Maxime Poundjé Ligue 1 · 2019 | 27 | €5.0M | €2.0M | fell |
| Bouna Sarr Ligue 1 · 2019 | 27 | €6.0M | €4.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jun 2025 | Mainz | Wolfsburg | Free / loan | €5.0M |
| 28 Aug 2024 | Wolfsburg | Mainz | Free / loan | €7.5M |
| 1 Jul 2023 | FC Lorient | Wolfsburg | €8.0M | €7.5M |
| 30 Jun 2023 | FC Schalke 04 | FC Lorient | Free / loan | €7.5M |
| 26 Jan 2023 | FC Lorient | FC Schalke 04 | Free / loan | €4.0M |
| 25 Jan 2023 | Celtic | FC Lorient | Free / loan | €4.0M |
| 19 Jul 2022 | FC Lorient | Celtic | Free / loan | €2.5M |
| 30 Aug 2021 | Lausanne-Sport | FC Lorient | €3.5M | €600k |
| 25 Aug 2020 | Fulham U23 | Lausanne-Sport | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Fulham U18 | Fulham U23 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2015 | Fulham Youth | Fulham U18 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2012 | TeBe Youth | Fulham Youth | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.