Omar Alderete
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Omar Alderete's performance-implied value at EUR 10.3M-21.7M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 7.2M-16.0M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 4.5M-9.5M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 8
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | High | 88.2th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 29.5 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €11.7M vs market €13.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -42% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Small | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 1.3 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2802 (82% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.06
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.08
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 88 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 1.30 (rank 1)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1496
- Opponent strength
- 1601
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €4.5M – €9.5M
Trajectory drivers: changed club; team strength up (+101 Elo); league level up (+125 Elo); relative output up 72% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -54% (IQR -68% to -48%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Sunderland AFC | Premier League | CB | 33 | 2802 | 82% | 1 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.08 | 1601 | 1496 | 1.30 |
| 2024/25 | Getafe CF | Laliga | CB | 34 | 2978 | 87% | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.05 | 1523 | 1395 | 0.95 |
| 2023/24 | Getafe CF | Laliga | CB | 31 | 2193 | 64% | 0 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.06 | 1484 | 1415 | 1.00 |
| 2022/23 | Getafe CF | Laliga | CB | 25 | 2050 | 60% | 1 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.10 | 1510 | 1434 | 0.98 |
| 2021/22 | Valencia CF | Laliga | CB | 29 | 2410 | 70% | 2 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.08 | 1542 | 1487 | 1.05 |
| 2020/21 | Hertha BSC | Bundesliga | CB | 17 | 1299 | 42% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 1500 | 1446 | 1.06 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | World Cup | Paraguay | 3 | 264 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | Fa Cup | Sunderland AFC | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Copa Del Rey | Getafe CF | 2 | 95 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Copa Del Rey | Getafe CF | 4 | 264 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Copa Del Rey | Getafe CF | 3 | 220 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Copa Del Rey | Valencia CF | 5 | 435 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | FC Basel 1893 | 3 | 270 | 0 | 0 | 1421 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Cook Premier League · 2019 | 28 | €10.0M | €6.0M | fell |
| Ethan Pinnock Premier League · 2022 | 29 | €12.0M | €12.0M | flat |
| Yuri Berchiche Laliga · 2020 | 30 | €16.0M | €3.0M | fell |
| Leandro Cabrera Laliga · 2020 | 29 | €8.0M | €4.0M | fell |
| Timothy Castagne Premier League · 2024 | 29 | €17.0M | €8.0M | fell |
| Eric Dier Premier League · 2023 | 29 | €18.0M | €8.0M | fell |
| Dakonam Djené Laliga · 2021 | 30 | €18.0M | €5.0M | fell |
| Hugo Mallo Laliga · 2019 | 28 | €15.0M | €5.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Aug 2025 | Getafe | Sunderland | €11.6M | €8.0M |
| 1 Jul 2023 | Hertha BSC | Getafe | €4.0M | €4.0M |
| 30 Jun 2023 | Getafe | Hertha BSC | Free / loan | €4.0M |
| 19 Aug 2022 | Hertha BSC | Getafe | Free / loan | €10.0M |
| 30 Jun 2022 | Valencia | Hertha BSC | Free / loan | €10.0M |
| 12 Jul 2021 | Hertha BSC | Valencia | Free / loan | €4.5M |
| 5 Oct 2020 | Basel | Hertha BSC | €4.0M | €3.0M |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Huracán | Basel | €1.7M | €900k |
| 20 Jul 2018 | Cerro Porteño | Huracán | €1.4M | €900k |
| 30 Jun 2018 | Gimnasia | Cerro Porteño | Free / loan | €900k |
| 31 Jul 2017 | Cerro Porteño | Gimnasia | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Cerro U20 | Cerro Porteño | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.