Bert Esselink
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Bert Esselink's performance-implied value at EUR 0.4M-0.9M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.1M-0.3M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.3M-0.5M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 99
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 12.8th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 26.9 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €138k vs market €350k |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | +4% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.31 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1524 (51% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.06
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.07
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 13 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.31 (rank 26)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1178
- Opponent strength
- 1200
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €254k – €484k
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -18% (IQR -26% to +19%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲League level coefficient 0.31 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠Limited sample: 1524 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 16 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 90%–275%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 75%
- Confidence
- Low
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Dundee United FC | Scottish Premiership | CB | 19 | 1524 | 51% | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.07 | 1200 | 1177 | 0.31 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | Dundee United FC | 4 | 390 | 0 | 0 | 1332 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andriy Ponedelnik Premier Liga · 2023 | 26 | €400k | €800k | rose |
| Nikolay Zolotov Premier Liga · 2023 | 29 | €400k | €300k | fell |
| Oleksandr Kapliyenko Premier Liga · 2023 | 27 | €400k | €300k | fell |
| Levent Gülen Super League 1 · 2022 | 28 | €300k | €150k | fell |
| Oleksandr Osman Premier Liga · 2024 | 28 | €350k | €250k | fell |
| Corrie Ndaba Scottish Premiership · 2024 | 25 | €350k | €900k | rose |
| Triantafyllos Pasalidis Super League 1 · 2023 | 27 | €500k | €450k | flat |
| Matt Penney Scottish Premiership · 2023 | 25 | €250k | €250k | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2025 | Stal Mielec | Dundee United | Free / loan | €300k |
| 3 Jul 2023 | APOEL Nicosia | Stal Mielec | Free / loan | €300k |
| 30 Jun 2023 | Olympiakos N. | APOEL Nicosia | Free / loan | €300k |
| 26 Aug 2022 | APOEL Nicosia | Olympiakos N. | Free / loan | €300k |
| 9 Jan 2022 | PAEEK Kyrenia | APOEL Nicosia | €10k | €50k |
| 16 Jul 2020 | Graafschap U21 | PAEEK Kyrenia | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Graafschap U19 | De Graafs. U21 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2015 | Graafschap U17 | Graafschap U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2014 | Graafschap Yth. | Graafschap U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.