Mads Larsen
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Mads Larsen's performance-implied value at EUR 0.5M-1.7M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.6M-1.8M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.9M-2.2M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.63x the positional average in the league (1768 minutes, league coefficient 0.47). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Around 18 months left: some discount usually possible.
Bargain Index: 97
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 14.7th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 24.8 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €701k vs market €1.5M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | -4% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.47 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1768 (89% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.05
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.08
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 15 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.47 (rank 12)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1213
- Opponent strength
- 1267
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €863k – €2.2M
Trajectory drivers: league level up (+45 Elo); role change CM -> DM.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -45% (IQR -65% to -23%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 1768 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.47 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 23 (MID)
- Relative output kept
- 68%–122%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 65%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Silkeborg IF | Superliga | DM | 22 | 1768 | 89% | 0 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.08 | 1267 | 1213 | 0.47 |
| 2024/25 | Silkeborg IF | Superliga | CM | 22 | 1763 | 89% | 1 | 1 | 0.10 | 0.14 | 1317 | 1264 | 0.38 |
| 2023/24 | Silkeborg IF | Superliga | AM | 5 | 123 | 6% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.38 | 1351 | 1238 | 0.48 |
| 2019/20 | Esbjerg fB | Superliga | AM | 6 | 119 | 5% | 1 | 0 | 0.76 | 0.55 | 1265 | 1137 | 0.41 |
| 2018/19 | Esbjerg fB | Superliga | AM | 2 | 7 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.41 | 1281 | 1239 | 0.44 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | Silkeborg IF | 4 | 201 | 0 | 0 | 1383 |
| 2025/26 | Oddset Pokalen | Silkeborg IF | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Oddset Pokalen | Silkeborg IF | 7 | 552 | 1 | 1 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | Silkeborg IF | 2 | 210 | 0 | 0 | 1443 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | Silkeborg IF | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | 1536 |
| 2023/24 | Oddset Pokalen | Silkeborg IF | 2 | 170 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Oddset Pokalen | Esbjerg fB | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Oddset Pokalen | Esbjerg fB | 2 | 99 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Wils Jupiler Pro League · 2014 | 24 | €1.0M | €350k | fell |
| Ugochukwu Iwu Premier Liga · 2024 | 25 | €1.5M | €3.0M | rose |
| Gökhan Gül Super Lig · 2024 | 26 | €2.0M | €1.3M | fell |
| Lasha Parunashvili Superliga · 2019 | 26 | €1.0M | €300k | fell |
| Gregor Breinburg Eredivisie · 2017 | 26 | €1.0M | €500k | fell |
| Iver Fossum Superliga · 2023 | 27 | €1.5M | €500k | fell |
| Sven Kums Eredivisie · 2013 | 25 | €2.0M | €2.5M | rose |
| Sjoerd Overgoor Eredivisie · 2015 | 27 | €750k | €450k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Jan 2024 | Esbjerg fB | Silkeborg IF | €135k | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Esbjerg fB U19 | Esbjerg fB | Unknown | €100k |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Esbjerg Youth | Esbjerg fB U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.