Ugochukwu Iwu
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Ugochukwu Iwu's performance-implied value at EUR 0.8M-2.6M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.2M-3.1M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.3M-3.2M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.22x the positional average in the league (1251 minutes, league coefficient 0.56). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 43
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 32.2th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 26.6 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €2.0M vs market €3.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -38% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.56 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1251 (46% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.22
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.15
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 32 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.56 (rank 10)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1339
- Opponent strength
- 1324
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €1.3M – €3.2M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 33 pts; relative output up 271% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -28% (IQR -42% to +0%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ⚠Limited sample: 1251 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.56 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠League level estimated mainly from squad values (few matches vs other leagues).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 18 (MID)
- Relative output kept
- 54%–153%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 56%
- Confidence
- Low
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | FC Rubin Kazan | Premier Liga | DM | 14 | 1251 | 46% | 0 | 3 | 0.22 | 0.15 | 1324 | 1339 | 0.56 |
| 2024/25 | FC Rubin Kazan | Premier Liga | DM | 26 | 2150 | 80% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 1309 | 1322 | 0.55 |
| 2023/24 | FC Rubin Kazan | Premier Liga | DM | 26 | 2228 | 83% | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.07 | 1336 | 1271 | 0.49 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Russian Cup | FC Rubin Kazan | 5 | 156 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Russian Cup | FC Rubin Kazan | 7 | 246 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | FC Urartu Yerevan | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1379 |
| 2023/24 | Russian Cup | FC Rubin Kazan | 2 | 48 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Siebe Schrijvers Jupiler Pro League · 2023 | 27 | €2.0M | €1.5M | fell |
| David Simão Liga Portugal · 2016 | 26 | €1.5M | €1.5M | flat |
| Alhassan Wakaso Liga Portugal · 2017 | 25 | €1.8M | €3.0M | rose |
| Erdem Sen Super Lig · 2016 | 27 | €2.2M | €1.5M | fell |
| Amir Hadziahmetovic Super Lig · 2024 | 27 | €6.5M | €4.0M | fell |
| Kristoffer Olsson Superliga · 2023 | 28 | €2.5M | €2.5M | flat |
| Zelimkhan Bakaev Premier Liga · 2021 | 25 | €5.0M | €2.5M | fell |
| Ogenyi Onazi Super Lig · 2018 | 26 | €3.5M | €1.6M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Jul 2023 | FC Urartu | Rubin Kazan | €600k | €450k |
| 7 Aug 2020 | Lori Vanadzor | FC Urartu | €60k | €250k |
| 31 May 2020 | Pyunik Yerevan | Lori Vanadzor | Free / loan | €250k |
| 29 Aug 2019 | Lori Vanadzor | Pyunik Yerevan | Free / loan | €250k |
| 7 Feb 2018 | Elkanemi | Lori Vanadzor | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.