Daniel Bielica
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Daniel Bielica's performance-implied value at EUR 0.4M-1.2M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.2M-0.6M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.5M-1.1M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 95
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 20th pct among GK peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 27.2 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €302k vs market €800k |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | -9% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.43 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 284 evaluated GK players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2970 (97% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.00
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 20 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.43 (rank 15)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1118
- Opponent strength
- 1321
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €466k – €1.1M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -6% (IQR -31% to +27%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.43 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 217 (all positions)
- Relative output kept
- 70%–152%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 69%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | NAC Breda | Eredivisie | GK | 33 | 2970 | 97% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1321 | 1118 | 0.43 |
| 2024/25 | NAC Breda | Eredivisie | GK | 32 | 2880 | 94% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1301 | 1125 | 0.50 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024/25 | Knvb Beker | NAC Breda | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stijn van Gassel Eredivisie · 2024 | 28 | €800k | €1.0M | rose |
| Nathan Trott Superliga · 2024 | 26 | €1.0M | €1.0M | flat |
| Liam Kelly Scottish Premiership · 2023 | 27 | €600k | €800k | rose |
| Dimitar Mitov Scottish Premiership · 2024 | 27 | €500k | €800k | rose |
| Lawrence Thomas Superliga · 2021 | 29 | €700k | €500k | fell |
| Nordin Bakker Eredivisie · 2024 | 27 | €800k | €350k | fell |
| Jamie MacDonald Scottish Premiership · 2014 | 28 | €450k | €400k | flat |
| Fotis Koutzavasilis Super League 1 · 2017 | 28 | €400k | €250k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2024 | Górnik Zabrze | NAC Breda | Free / loan | €800k |
| 30 Jun 2021 | Warta Poznan | Górnik Zabrze | Free / loan | €250k |
| 12 Aug 2020 | Górnik Zabrze | Warta Poznan | Free / loan | €200k |
| 31 Jul 2020 | Sandecja | Górnik Zabrze | Free / loan | €200k |
| 9 Jul 2019 | Górnik Zabrze | Sandecja | Free / loan | €200k |
| 22 Mar 2018 | Gornik II | Górnik Zabrze | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Gornik U19 | Gornik II | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2015 | Zaborze Zabrze | Gornik U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.