Dimitar Mitov

29 yrs · Goalkeeper · Bulgaria
Aberdeen FC · Scottish Premiership · Foot: right · Height: 193 cm
Risk: ModerateConfidence: MediumSample: HighDevelopment: LowContract: until 30 Jun 2027
Market value
€800k
Updated 6 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€198k – €571k
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€298k – €796k
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€285k – €734k
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€273k – €598k
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€198k – €571k
Model value (performance-implied)€298k – €796k
Projected value (24 months)€285k – €734k
Dashed line: current market value (€800k). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Dimitar Mitov's performance-implied value at EUR 0.3M-0.8M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.2M-0.6M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.3M-0.7M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.

Bargain Index: 81

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

PerformanceBelow average25.4th pct among GK peers (age-neutral)
AgeUnfavorable29.4 years
Acquisition costVery favorableest. €263k vs market €800k
Expected appreciationVery low-31% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapVery largeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationUncertainleague coefficient 0.31
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskModerate
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €1.0M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 284 evaluated GK players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
2610 (88% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.00
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.00
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
25 (Below average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.31 (rank 26)
Team strength (Elo)
1119
Opponent strength
1222
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
improving
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€285k – €734k

Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 32 pts; team strength down (-67 Elo).

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -33% (IQR -45% to -14%).

Risk profile

Overall: Moderate

  • ▲League level coefficient 0.31 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
  • ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Historical movers
38 (all positions)
Relative output kept
78%–148%
Held a regular role (900+ min)
74%
Confidence
Medium

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26Aberdeen FCScottish PremiershipGK29261088%000.000.00122211190.31
2024/25Aberdeen FCScottish PremiershipGK19166556%000.000.00121711860.34
2023/24St. Johnstone FCScottish PremiershipGK332970100%000.000.00126011050.34

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2025/26Uefa Europa League QualifyingAberdeen FC2180001373
2025/26Scottish Fa CupAberdeen FC218000—
2024/25Scottish Fa CupAberdeen FC333000—
2023/24Scottish Fa CupSt. Johnstone FC19000—

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Andreas Gianniotis
Super League 1 · 2023
31€600k€375kfell
Yevgen Volynets
Premier Liga · 2023
30€700k€600kflat
Kristoffer Nordfeldt
Super Lig · 2021
32€900k€400kfell
Christopher Knett
Super League 1 · 2021
31€350k€250kfell
Oleg Mozil
Premier Liga · 2024
28€400k€200kfell
Ross Laidlaw
Scottish Premiership · 2023
31€350k€200kfell
Erce Kardeşler
Super Lig · 2024
30€425k€425kflat
Lefteris Choutesiotis
Super League 1 · 2022
28€450k€400kflat

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
1 Jul 2024St. JohnstoneAberdeen FCUnknown€500k
14 Jul 2023Cambridge Utd.St. JohnstoneFree / loan€250k
1 Jul 2017CharltonCambridge Utd.Free / loan€50k
1 Jul 2015Charlton U18CharltonUnknownData unavailable
28 Mar 2015Canvey IslandCharlton U18Free / loanData unavailable
27 Feb 2015Charlton U18Canvey IslandFree / loanData unavailable
1 Jul 2013Etropole U19Charlton U18UnknownData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.