Andri Fannar Baldursson

24 yrs · Defensive midfielder (also AM, CM) · Iceland
Kasimpasa · Super Lig · Foot: right · Height: 187 cm
Risk: ModerateConfidence: MediumSample: HighDevelopment: LowContract: until 30 Jun 2028
Market value
€2.0M
Updated 6 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€835k – €2.9M
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€422k – €1.3M
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€1.1M – €3.6M
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€2.4M – €441k
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€835k – €2.9M
Model value (performance-implied)€422k – €1.3M
Projected value (24 months)€1.1M – €3.6M
Dashed line: current market value (€2.0M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Andri Fannar Baldursson's performance-implied value at EUR 0.4M-1.3M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.8M-2.9M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.1M-3.6M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.67x the positional average in the league (2720 minutes, league coefficient 0.40). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Bargain Index: 85

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

PerformanceBelow average25.6th pct among MID peers (age-neutral)
AgeNeutral24.5 years
Acquisition costFavorableest. €1.4M vs market €2.0M
Expected appreciationNeutral+2% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapVery negativeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationUncertainleague coefficient 0.4
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskModerate
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €2.0M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
2720 (89% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.03
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.08
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
26 (Below average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.40 (rank 18)
Team strength (Elo)
1203
Opponent strength
1260
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
insufficient
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€1.1M – €3.6M

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -37% (IQR -65% to +18%).

Risk profile

Overall: Moderate

  • ⚠League level coefficient 0.40 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
  • ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
  • ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Historical movers
35 (MID)
Relative output kept
77%–144%
Held a regular role (900+ min)
69%
Confidence
Medium

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26KasimpasaSuper LigDM31272089%010.030.08126012030.40
2022/23NEC NijmegenEredivisieAM112077%000.000.37137612660.58
2021/22FC CopenhagenSuperligaCM3462%000.000.11114515160.45
2020/21Bologna Football Club 1909Serie ACM82126%000.000.22157013800.90
2019/20Bologna Football Club 1909Serie ACM71364%000.000.19144013650.82

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2024/25Uefa Europa LeagueIdrottsföreningen Elfsborg3193011557
2024/25Uefa Europa League QualifyingIdrottsföreningen Elfsborg4187101439
2022/23Knvb BekerNEC Nijmegen17900—
2021/22Oddset PokalenFC Copenhagen14500—
2020/21Italy CupBologna Football Club 190914500—

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Thomas Wils
Jupiler Pro League · 2014
24€1.0M€350kfell
Gökhan Gül
Super Lig · 2024
26€2.0M€1.3Mfell
Lasha Parunashvili
Superliga · 2019
26€1.0M€300kfell
Radosław Murawski
Super Lig · 2020
26€1.4M€850kfell
Iver Fossum
Superliga · 2023
27€1.5M€500kfell
Ugochukwu Iwu
Premier Liga · 2024
25€1.5M€3.0Mrose
Sven Kums
Eredivisie · 2013
25€2.0M€2.5Mrose
Jacob Lungi Sørensen
Superliga · 2020
22€1.3M€1.5Mflat

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
30 Jul 2025BolognaKasimpasa€500k€600k
31 Dec 2024ElfsborgBolognaFree / loan€900k
10 Aug 2023BolognaElfsborgFree / loan€500k
30 Jun 2023NEC NijmegenBolognaFree / loan€500k
6 Jul 2022BolognaNEC NijmegenFree / loan€600k
30 Jun 2022CopenhagenBolognaFree / loan€600k
23 Aug 2021BolognaCopenhagenFree / loan€1.0M
1 Jun 2020Bologna U19BolognaUnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2019BreidablikBologna U19€50kData unavailable
30 Jun 2019Bologna U17BreidablikFree / loanData unavailable
31 Jan 2019BreidablikBologna U17Free / loanData unavailable
23 Mar 2018Breidablik U19BreidablikUnknownData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.