
Andri Fannar Baldursson
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Andri Fannar Baldursson's performance-implied value at EUR 0.4M-1.3M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.8M-2.9M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.1M-3.6M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.67x the positional average in the league (2720 minutes, league coefficient 0.40). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 85
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 25.6th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 24.5 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €1.4M vs market €2.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | +2% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.4 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2720 (89% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.03
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.08
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 26 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.40 (rank 18)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1203
- Opponent strength
- 1260
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €1.1M – €3.6M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -37% (IQR -65% to +18%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.40 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 35 (MID)
- Relative output kept
- 77%–144%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 69%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Kasimpasa | Super Lig | DM | 31 | 2720 | 89% | 0 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.08 | 1260 | 1203 | 0.40 |
| 2022/23 | NEC Nijmegen | Eredivisie | AM | 11 | 207 | 7% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.37 | 1376 | 1266 | 0.58 |
| 2021/22 | FC Copenhagen | Superliga | CM | 3 | 46 | 2% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 1145 | 1516 | 0.45 |
| 2020/21 | Bologna Football Club 1909 | Serie A | CM | 8 | 212 | 6% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.22 | 1570 | 1380 | 0.90 |
| 2019/20 | Bologna Football Club 1909 | Serie A | CM | 7 | 136 | 4% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.19 | 1440 | 1365 | 0.82 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024/25 | Uefa Europa League | Idrottsföreningen Elfsborg | 3 | 193 | 0 | 1 | 1557 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | Idrottsföreningen Elfsborg | 4 | 187 | 1 | 0 | 1439 |
| 2022/23 | Knvb Beker | NEC Nijmegen | 1 | 79 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Oddset Pokalen | FC Copenhagen | 1 | 45 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Italy Cup | Bologna Football Club 1909 | 1 | 45 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Wils Jupiler Pro League · 2014 | 24 | €1.0M | €350k | fell |
| Gökhan Gül Super Lig · 2024 | 26 | €2.0M | €1.3M | fell |
| Lasha Parunashvili Superliga · 2019 | 26 | €1.0M | €300k | fell |
| Radosław Murawski Super Lig · 2020 | 26 | €1.4M | €850k | fell |
| Iver Fossum Superliga · 2023 | 27 | €1.5M | €500k | fell |
| Ugochukwu Iwu Premier Liga · 2024 | 25 | €1.5M | €3.0M | rose |
| Sven Kums Eredivisie · 2013 | 25 | €2.0M | €2.5M | rose |
| Jacob Lungi Sørensen Superliga · 2020 | 22 | €1.3M | €1.5M | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jul 2025 | Bologna | Kasimpasa | €500k | €600k |
| 31 Dec 2024 | Elfsborg | Bologna | Free / loan | €900k |
| 10 Aug 2023 | Bologna | Elfsborg | Free / loan | €500k |
| 30 Jun 2023 | NEC Nijmegen | Bologna | Free / loan | €500k |
| 6 Jul 2022 | Bologna | NEC Nijmegen | Free / loan | €600k |
| 30 Jun 2022 | Copenhagen | Bologna | Free / loan | €600k |
| 23 Aug 2021 | Bologna | Copenhagen | Free / loan | €1.0M |
| 1 Jun 2020 | Bologna U19 | Bologna | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Breidablik | Bologna U19 | €50k | Data unavailable |
| 30 Jun 2019 | Bologna U17 | Breidablik | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 31 Jan 2019 | Breidablik | Bologna U17 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 23 Mar 2018 | Breidablik U19 | Breidablik | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.