Halil Dervişoğlu

The model rates Halil Dervişoğlu's performance-implied value at EUR 0.9M-1.1M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.2M-0.6M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.4M-1.0M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.62x the positional average in the league (855 minutes, league coefficient 0.40). Confidence is low: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.

Insufficient sample (< 900 league minutes)

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Minutes

855 (28% of available)

Goals + assists / 90

0.10

Context-adjusted G+A / 90

0.32

xG, xA, progression

Data unavailable

Defensive actions

Data unavailable

Performance percentile

25 (Below average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

League strength

0.40 (rank 18)

Team strength (Elo)

1229

Opponent strength

1240

Possession, role

Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Development

Low

Trajectory

declining

Breakout probability

Age > 23

Resale range (24m)

€375k – €973k

Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 21 pts; changed club; relative output down 25% vs positional peers.

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -11% (IQR -37% to +0%).

• ▲Small sample: 855 league minutes last season.
• ⚠League level coefficient 0.40 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
• ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
• ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
• ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
• ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
• ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

Historical movers

53 (ATT)

Relative output kept

79%–133%

Held a regular role (900+ min)

58%

Confidence

Medium

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.