Brennan Johnson
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Brennan Johnson's performance-implied value at EUR 24.6M-43.0M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 19.4M-37.1M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 15.9M-40.7M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.72x the positional average in the league (1723 minutes, league coefficient 1.30). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 45
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Elite | 91.2th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 25.1 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €25.9M vs market €30.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -17% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Small | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 1.3 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1723 (50% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.16
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.23
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 91 (Elite)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 1.30 (rank 1)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1580
- Opponent strength
- 1611
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €15.9M – €40.7M
Trajectory drivers: changed club; relative output down 38% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -43% (IQR -56% to +0%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 1723 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Crystal Palace | Premier League | RW | 18 | 1117 | 33% | 0 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.23 | 1611 | 1589 | 1.30 |
| 2025/26 | Tottenham Hotspur | Premier League | RW | 16 | 606 | 18% | 2 | 0 | 0.30 | 0.37 | 1599 | 1564 | 1.30 |
| 2024/25 | Tottenham Hotspur | Premier League | RW | 33 | 2179 | 64% | 11 | 5 | 0.66 | 0.50 | 1563 | 1564 | 1.23 |
| 2023/24 | Tottenham Hotspur | Premier League | RW | 32 | 2093 | 61% | 5 | 10 | 0.65 | 0.49 | 1606 | 1588 | 1.14 |
| 2023/24 | Nottingham Forest | Premier League | ST | 3 | 240 | 7% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.56 | 1595 | 1428 | 1.14 |
| 2022/23 | Nottingham Forest | Premier League | ST | 38 | 2941 | 86% | 8 | 3 | 0.34 | 0.53 | 1547 | 1433 | 1.23 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | Tottenham Hotspur | 4 | 151 | 1 | 0 | 1470 |
| 2025/26 | Fa Cup | Crystal Palace | 1 | 45 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Europa League | Tottenham Hotspur | 13 | 802 | 5 | 1 | 1553 |
| 2024/25 | Fa Cup | Tottenham Hotspur | 1 | 120 | 1 | 1 | — |
| 2023/24 | Fa Cup | Tottenham Hotspur | 2 | 155 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Fa Cup | Nottingham Forest | 1 | 22 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bernard Premier League · 2019 | 27 | €20.0M | €12.0M | fell |
| Odsonne Édouard Premier League · 2023 | 25 | €15.0M | €8.0M | fell |
| Yevgen Konoplyanka Laliga · 2016 | 27 | €25.0M | €10.0M | fell |
| Demarai Gray Premier League · 2019 | 23 | €20.0M | €8.0M | fell |
| Adama Traoré Premier League · 2022 | 26 | €20.0M | €9.0M | fell |
| Steven Bergwijn Premier League · 2021 | 24 | €22.0M | €22.0M | flat |
| Dejan Kulusevski Premier League · 2023 | 23 | €50.0M | €50.0M | flat |
| Vitolo Laliga · 2016 | 27 | €12.0M | €25.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Jan 2026 | Tottenham | Crystal Palace | €40.0M | €35.0M |
| 1 Sept 2023 | Nott'm Forest | Tottenham | €55.0M | €38.0M |
| 31 May 2021 | Lincoln City | Nott'm Forest | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 25 Sept 2020 | Nott'm Forest | Lincoln City | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Nottingham U18 | Nott'm Forest | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.