Jan Thielmann
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Jan Thielmann's performance-implied value at EUR 1.8M-6.4M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 3.0M-7.5M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 2.4M-8.0M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.89x the positional average in the league (1548 minutes, league coefficient 0.94). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 30
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 49.3th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 24.1 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €5.2M vs market €5.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -12% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.94 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1548 (51% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.23
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.35
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 49 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.94 (rank 3)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1347
- Opponent strength
- 1501
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €2.4M – €8.0M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +5% (IQR -11% to +14%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 1548 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | 1.FC Köln | Bundesliga | RW | 26 | 1548 | 51% | 3 | 1 | 0.23 | 0.35 | 1501 | 1347 | 0.94 |
| 2023/24 | 1.FC Köln | Bundesliga | ST | 22 | 1591 | 52% | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.26 | 1496 | 1382 | 1.01 |
| 2022/23 | 1.FC Köln | Bundesliga | RW | 23 | 846 | 28% | 2 | 3 | 0.53 | 0.41 | 1487 | 1476 | 1.04 |
| 2021/22 | 1.FC Köln | Bundesliga | RW | 29 | 1181 | 39% | 3 | 3 | 0.46 | 0.47 | 1552 | 1500 | 1.05 |
| 2020/21 | 1.FC Köln | Bundesliga | RW | 24 | 1023 | 33% | 2 | 3 | 0.44 | 0.50 | 1575 | 1400 | 1.06 |
| 2019/20 | 1.FC Köln | Bundesliga | RW | 12 | 557 | 18% | 0 | 1 | 0.16 | 0.39 | 1572 | 1407 | 1.06 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Dfb Pokal | 1.FC Köln | 1 | 22 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Dfb Pokal | 1.FC Köln | 1 | 21 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | 1.FC Köln | 2 | 84 | 0 | 1 | 1486 |
| 2022/23 | Dfb Pokal | 1.FC Köln | 1 | 64 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Dfb Pokal | 1.FC Köln | 3 | 311 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Dfb Pokal | 1.FC Köln | 2 | 126 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerry Mbakogu Serie A · 2016 | 24 | €2.6M | €2.0M | fell |
| Enzo Crivelli Ligue 1 · 2018 | 23 | €4.0M | €4.8M | rose |
| Lameck Banda Serie A · 2023 | 22 | €4.0M | €4.5M | flat |
| Ciro Immobile Serie A · 2013 | 23 | €7.0M | €12.0M | rose |
| Marvin Pieringer Bundesliga · 2024 | 25 | €3.0M | €3.0M | flat |
| Keito Nakamura Ligue 1 · 2024 | 24 | €9.0M | €10.0M | flat |
| Marco Richter Bundesliga · 2022 | 25 | €6.0M | €2.0M | fell |
| Marcus Coco Ligue 1 · 2019 | 23 | €3.0M | €2.8M | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Jan 2020 | 1.FC Köln U19 | 1.FC Köln | Unknown | €250k |
| 1 Jul 2019 | 1.FC Köln U17 | 1.FC Köln U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2017 | E. Trier Yth. | 1.FC Köln U17 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.