
Lameck Banda
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Lameck Banda's performance-implied value at EUR 1.8M-9.2M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.3M-3.3M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.7M-5.0M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.50x the positional average in the league (1760 minutes, league coefficient 0.93). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 94
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 51.9th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 25.4 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €1.7M vs market €3.5M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -11% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.93 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1760 (52% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.46
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.61
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 52 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.93 (rank 4)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1352
- Opponent strength
- 1506
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €1.7M – €5.0M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 34 pts; relative output up 40% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +28% (IQR -41% to +67%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 1760 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | US Lecce | Serie A | LW | 32 | 1760 | 51% | 5 | 4 | 0.46 | 0.61 | 1506 | 1352 | 0.93 |
| 2024/25 | US Lecce | Serie A | LW | 15 | 609 | 18% | 0 | 1 | 0.15 | 0.45 | 1525 | 1351 | 0.99 |
| 2023/24 | US Lecce | Serie A | LW | 21 | 1361 | 40% | 2 | 4 | 0.40 | 0.56 | 1495 | 1359 | 0.98 |
| 2022/23 | US Lecce | Serie A | LW | 36 | 1634 | 48% | 2 | 1 | 0.17 | 0.35 | 1466 | 1323 | 0.94 |
| 2020/21 | Arsenal Tula | Premier Liga | LW | 2 | 35 | 1% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.52 | 1433 | 1216 | 0.55 |
| 2019/20 | Arsenal Tula | Premier Liga | RW | 9 | 138 | 5% | 0 | 1 | 0.65 | 0.44 | 1378 | 1327 | 0.63 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Africa Cup Of Nations | Zambia | 3 | 182 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | Italy Cup | US Lecce | 1 | 45 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Italy Cup | US Lecce | 2 | 75 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2023/24 | Italy Cup | US Lecce | 2 | 100 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | Arsenal Tula | 2 | 63 | 0 | 0 | 1309 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Duván Zapata Serie A · 2016 | 25 | €7.5M | €20.0M | rose |
| Jérémy Le Douaron Ligue 1 · 2022 | 24 | €3.0M | €5.0M | rose |
| Federico Bonazzoli Serie A · 2022 | 25 | €5.0M | €2.5M | fell |
| Adama Traoré Ligue 1 · 2020 | 25 | €2.4M | €4.0M | rose |
| Daniele Verde Serie A · 2022 | 26 | €5.0M | €1.3M | fell |
| Majeed Waris Ligue 1 · 2016 | 25 | €4.0M | €2.5M | fell |
| Florian Kainz Bundesliga · 2020 | 28 | €2.4M | €3.5M | rose |
| Andreas Cornelius Serie A · 2020 | 27 | €8.0M | €9.0M | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 Aug 2022 | M. Petah Tikva | Lecce | €2.0M | €300k |
| 1 Jul 2022 | Arsenal Tula | M. Petah Tikva | €300k | €300k |
| 30 Jun 2022 | M. Petah Tikva | Arsenal Tula | Free / loan | €300k |
| 6 Aug 2021 | Arsenal Tula | M. Petah Tikva | Free / loan | €250k |
| 30 Jun 2021 | Maccabi Netanya | Arsenal Tula | Free / loan | €250k |
| 7 Sept 2020 | Arsenal Tula | Maccabi Netanya | Free / loan | €300k |
| 10 Jul 2019 | ZESCO United FC | Arsenal Tula | €250k | Data unavailable |
| 18 Jan 2018 | Nkwazi FC | ZESCO United FC | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.