Manuel Ugarte

The model rates Manuel Ugarte's performance-implied value at EUR 19.9M-36.4M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 16.0M-36.9M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 13.6M-26.7M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.36x the positional average in the league (881 minutes, league coefficient 1.30). Confidence is low: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Insufficient sample (< 900 league minutes)

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Minutes

881 (26% of available)

Goals + assists / 90

0.00

Context-adjusted G+A / 90

0.04

xG, xA, progression

Data unavailable

Defensive actions

Data unavailable

Performance percentile

89 (High)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

League strength

1.30 (rank 1)

Team strength (Elo)

1715

Opponent strength

1579

Possession, role

Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Development

Moderate

Trajectory

declining

Breakout probability

Age > 23

Resale range (24m)

€13.6M – €26.7M

Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 27 pts; team strength up (+112 Elo); relative output down 66% vs positional peers.

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -47% (IQR -54% to -22%).

• ▲Small sample: 881 league minutes last season.
• ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
• ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
• ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

Already playing in a big-five league.

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.