Warleson
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Warleson's performance-implied value at EUR 0.5M-1.1M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.6M-1.7M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.5M-1.6M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 44
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 19th pct among GK peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 29.8 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €764k vs market €2.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -53% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.65 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 284 evaluated GK players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1107 (41% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.00
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 19 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.65 (rank 6)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1325
- Opponent strength
- 1397
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €469k – €1.6M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -46% (IQR -62% to -22%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ⚠Limited sample: 1107 league minutes last season.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 214 (all positions)
- Relative output kept
- 68%–140%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 69%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Cercle Brugge | Jupiler Pro League | GK | 14 | 1107 | 41% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1397 | 1325 | 0.65 |
| 2024/25 | Cercle Brugge | Jupiler Pro League | GK | 10 | 816 | 30% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1345 | 1361 | 0.63 |
| 2023/24 | Cercle Brugge | Jupiler Pro League | GK | 30 | 2700 | 100% | 0 | 2 | 0.07 | 0.02 | 1379 | 1394 | 0.63 |
| 2022/23 | Cercle Brugge | Jupiler Pro League | GK | 7 | 585 | 19% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1277 | 1373 | 0.58 |
| 2021/22 | Cercle Brugge | Jupiler Pro League | GK | 5 | 450 | 15% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1386 | 1305 | 0.49 |
| 2020/21 | Cercle Brugge | Jupiler Pro League | GK | 3 | 270 | 9% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1404 | 1228 | 0.55 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Jupiler Pro League Relegation Play Offs | Cercle Brugge | 5 | 450 | 0 | 0 | 1243 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | Cercle Brugge | 3 | 270 | 0 | 0 | 1337 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | Cercle Brugge | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | 1343 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ramazan Köse Super Lig · 2016 | 28 | €2.5M | €1.0M | fell |
| Vladimir Stojkovic Super League 1 · 2014 | 31 | €1.5M | €800k | fell |
| Davy Roef Jupiler Pro League · 2024 | 30 | €1.5M | €2.5M | rose |
| Aleksandr Gutor Premier Liga · 2017 | 28 | €900k | €800k | flat |
| Tim Krul Eredivisie · 2017 | 29 | €4.0M | €3.0M | fell |
| Maxence Prévot Jupiler Pro League · 2024 | 27 | €1.0M | €300k | fell |
| Stanislav Kritsyuk Liga Portugal · 2023 | 33 | €1.2M | €400k | fell |
| Sergiy Pogorilyi Premier Liga · 2013 | 27 | €1.3M | €700k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 Feb 2020 | Without Club | Cercle Brugge | Unknown | €50k |
| 1 Jan 2020 | Athletico-PR B | Without Club | Unknown | €50k |
| 31 Dec 2019 | São Joseense | Athletico-PR B | Free / loan | €50k |
| 23 May 2019 | Athletico-PR B | São Joseense | Free / loan | €50k |
| 30 Nov 2018 | Sampaio-MA | Athletico-PR B | Free / loan | €50k |
| 1 Mar 2018 | Atlético-PR B | Sampaio-MA | Free / loan | €50k |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.