Lukas Hradecky
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Lukas Hradecky's performance-implied value at EUR 0.6M-2.3M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.5M-1.5M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.5M-1.3M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Age above 33 (outside validated pool)
| Performance | High | 85.4th pct among GK peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 36.6 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €671k vs market €1.5M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -44% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.88 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 284 evaluated GK players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1441 (47% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.00
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 85 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.88 (rank 5)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1527
- Opponent strength
- 1499
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €451k – €1.3M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 38 pts; changed club; team strength down (-154 Elo).
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -60% (IQR -78% to -34%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲Age 37: resale value typically declines.
- ⚠Limited sample: 1441 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | AS Monaco | Ligue 1 | GK | 17 | 1441 | 47% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1499 | 1527 | 0.88 |
| 2024/25 | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | Bundesliga | GK | 29 | 2610 | 85% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1487 | 1681 | 0.94 |
| 2023/24 | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | Bundesliga | GK | 33 | 2970 | 97% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1506 | 1787 | 1.01 |
| 2022/23 | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | Bundesliga | GK | 33 | 2970 | 97% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1521 | 1601 | 1.04 |
| 2021/22 | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | Bundesliga | GK | 32 | 2880 | 94% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1512 | 1639 | 1.05 |
| 2020/21 | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | Bundesliga | GK | 29 | 2565 | 84% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1536 | 1563 | 1.06 |
| 2019/20 | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | Bundesliga | GK | 34 | 3060 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1529 | 1654 | 1.06 |
| 2018/19 | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | Bundesliga | GK | 32 | 2880 | 94% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1510 | 1625 | 1.05 |
| 2017/18 | Eintracht Frankfurt | Bundesliga | GK | 34 | 3060 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1520 | 1479 | 1.04 |
| 2016/17 | Eintracht Frankfurt | Bundesliga | GK | 33 | 2883 | 94% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1535 | 1424 | 1.06 |
| 2015/16 | Eintracht Frankfurt | Bundesliga | GK | 34 | 3060 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1529 | 1421 | 1.02 |
| 2015/16 | Bröndby IF | Superliga | GK | 3 | 270 | 9% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1239 | 1372 | 0.53 |
| 2014/15 | Bröndby IF | Superliga | GK | 33 | 2970 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1355 | 1373 | 0.48 |
| 2013/14 | Bröndby IF | Superliga | GK | 33 | 2970 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1349 | 1416 | 0.63 |
| 2012/13 | Esbjerg fB | Superliga | GK | 33 | 2970 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1343 | 1375 | 0.54 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | AS Monaco | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | 1549 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 4 | 360 | 0 | 0 | 1699 |
| 2024/25 | Franz Beckenbauer Supercup | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1637 |
| 2024/25 | Dfb Pokal | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Dfb Pokal | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Europa League | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 8 | 750 | 0 | 0 | 1558 |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Champions League | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 6 | 540 | 0 | 0 | 1626 |
| 2022/23 | Dfb Pokal | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Europa League | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 7 | 630 | 0 | 0 | 1567 |
| 2021/22 | Dfb Pokal | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Dfb Pokal | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 3 | 300 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Europa League | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 3 | 270 | 0 | 0 | 1462 |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Champions League | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 6 | 540 | 0 | 0 | 1651 |
| 2019/20 | Dfb Pokal | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 5 | 450 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Europa League | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 5 | 450 | 0 | 0 | 1627 |
| 2018/19 | Uefa Europa League | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 6 | 540 | 0 | 0 | 1490 |
| 2018/19 | Dfb Pokal | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2017/18 | Dfb Pokal | Eintracht Frankfurt | 6 | 570 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2016/17 | Dfb Pokal | Eintracht Frankfurt | 6 | 630 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2015/16 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | Bröndby IF | 6 | 540 | 0 | 0 | 1367 |
| 2015/16 | Dfb Pokal | Eintracht Frankfurt | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2014/15 | Oddset Pokalen | Bröndby IF | 3 | 330 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2014/15 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | Bröndby IF | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | 1488 |
| 2012/13 | Oddset Pokalen | Esbjerg fB | 6 | 600 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Federico Marchetti Serie A · 2017 | 34 | €2.0M | €300k | fell |
| Ilya Abaev Premier Liga · 2015 | 34 | €2.0M | €200k | fell |
| Rui Patrício Serie A · 2024 | 36 | €1.0M | €600k | fell |
| Andriy Dykan Premier Liga · 2013 | 36 | €1.0M | €250k | fell |
| Antonio Mirante Serie A · 2019 | 36 | €800k | €1.0M | rose |
| Steve Mandanda Ligue 1 · 2022 | 37 | €1.5M | €800k | fell |
| Fabien Audard Ligue 1 · 2014 | 36 | €850k | €250k | fell |
| Pepe Reina Serie A · 2022 | 40 | €700k | €600k | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Aug 2025 | Leverkusen | Monaco | €3.0M | €2.0M |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Frankfurt | Leverkusen | Free / loan | €10.0M |
| 7 Aug 2015 | Bröndby IF | Frankfurt | €2.5M | €1.3M |
| 1 Jul 2013 | Esbjerg fB | Bröndby IF | Free / loan | €800k |
| 10 Jan 2009 | TPS | Esbjerg fB | Free / loan | €50k |
| 31 Dec 2008 | Åbo IFK | TPS | Free / loan | €50k |
| 30 Jan 2008 | TPS | Åbo IFK | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2008 | TPS U19 | TPS | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.