Berat Özdemir
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Berat Özdemir's performance-implied value at EUR 0.7M-1.5M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.6M-2.0M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.9M-2.5M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.64x the positional average in the league (920 minutes, league coefficient 0.40). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 73
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 26.8th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 28.1 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €822k vs market €2.5M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -38% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.4 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 920 (30% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.08
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 27 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.40 (rank 18)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1357
- Opponent strength
- 1239
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €854k – €2.5M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 34 pts; team strength up (+71 Elo).
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -58% (IQR -72% to -30%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ⚠Limited sample: 920 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.40 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 35 (MID)
- Relative output kept
- 77%–144%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 69%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Basaksehir FK | Super Lig | DM | 17 | 920 | 30% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 1239 | 1357 | 0.40 |
| 2024/25 | Basaksehir FK | Super Lig | DM | 33 | 2072 | 64% | 0 | 2 | 0.09 | 0.08 | 1287 | 1286 | 0.39 |
| 2023/24 | Trabzonspor | Super Lig | DM | 32 | 2378 | 70% | 1 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.08 | 1303 | 1379 | 0.45 |
| 2022/23 | Trabzonspor | Super Lig | DM | 1 | 5 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 1154 | 1377 | 0.50 |
| 2021/22 | Trabzonspor | Super Lig | DM | 36 | 1716 | 50% | 0 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 1250 | 1433 | 0.42 |
| 2020/21 | Trabzonspor | Super Lig | DM | 15 | 1065 | 30% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 1288 | 1363 | 0.37 |
| 2020/21 | Gençlerbirliği Spor Kulübü | Super Lig | DM | 13 | 1043 | 29% | 3 | 0 | 0.26 | 0.23 | 1275 | 1130 | 0.37 |
| 2019/20 | Gençlerbirliği Spor Kulübü | Super Lig | CM | 31 | 2016 | 66% | 2 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.13 | 1335 | 1206 | 0.45 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | Basaksehir FK | 6 | 498 | 0 | 0 | 1346 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | Basaksehir FK | 2 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 1274 |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | Trabzonspor | 3 | 286 | 0 | 0 | 1549 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Salih Uçan Super Lig · 2022 | 28 | €3.0M | €4.0M | rose |
| Andreas Bouchalakis Super Lig · 2023 | 30 | €3.0M | €350k | fell |
| Darko Jevtic Super League 1 · 2022 | 29 | €1.5M | €500k | fell |
| Endri Cekici Super Lig · 2023 | 27 | €3.2M | €1.3M | fell |
| Tonny Vilhena Super League 1 · 2024 | 29 | €3.0M | €500k | fell |
| Adama Traoré Super Lig · 2022 | 27 | €4.0M | €3.0M | fell |
| Bernard Mensah Super Lig · 2021 | 27 | €3.5M | €2.4M | fell |
| Evgeniy Kharin Premier Liga · 2024 | 29 | €1.5M | €650k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2025 | Al-Ettifaq | Basaksehir | Free / loan | €4.2M |
| 30 Jun 2025 | Basaksehir | Al-Ettifaq | Free / loan | €4.2M |
| 10 Aug 2024 | Al-Ettifaq | Basaksehir | Free / loan | €6.0M |
| 30 Jun 2024 | Trabzonspor | Al-Ettifaq | Free / loan | €6.0M |
| 4 Sept 2023 | Al-Ettifaq | Trabzonspor | Free / loan | €4.5M |
| 9 Aug 2022 | Trabzonspor | Al-Ettifaq | €2.4M | €4.7M |
| 5 Jan 2021 | Genclerbirligi | Trabzonspor | €2.5M | €2.0M |
| 1 Jul 2018 | G.Birligi U21 | Genclerbirligi | Unknown | €100k |
| 30 Jun 2018 | Hacettepe | G.Birligi U21 | Free / loan | €100k |
| 12 Jan 2017 | G.Birligi U21 | Hacettepe | Free / loan | €50k |
| 1 Jul 2016 | G.Birligi U19 | G.Birligi U21 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2015 | G.Birligi Yth | G.Birligi U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.