
Nicolas Cozza
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Nicolas Cozza's performance-implied value at EUR 2.1M-8.3M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.9M-3.4M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.9M-2.5M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Contract end date unavailable: range widened by 15% each side.
Bargain Index: 25
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 61.6th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 27.5 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €2.0M vs market €2.5M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -35% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.88 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2303 (75% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.04
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.07
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 62 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.88 (rank 5)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1304
- Opponent strength
- 1487
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €857k – €2.5M
Trajectory drivers: role change LB -> CB.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -29% (IQR -45% to +35%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⓘContract end date unavailable (or stale in source).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | FC Nantes | Ligue 1 | CB | 29 | 2303 | 75% | 0 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.07 | 1487 | 1304 | 0.88 |
| 2024/25 | FC Nantes | Ligue 1 | LB | 27 | 2051 | 67% | 1 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.14 | 1486 | 1357 | 0.88 |
| 2023/24 | FC Nantes | Ligue 1 | LB | 13 | 896 | 29% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 1514 | 1309 | 0.87 |
| 2023/24 | VfL Wolfsburg | Bundesliga | LB | 6 | 277 | 9% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 1424 | 1427 | 1.01 |
| 2022/23 | Montpellier HSC | Ligue 1 | LB | 17 | 1275 | 37% | 2 | 1 | 0.21 | 0.23 | 1452 | 1440 | 0.82 |
| 2022/23 | VfL Wolfsburg | Bundesliga | LB | 5 | 97 | 3% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.12 | 1558 | 1525 | 1.04 |
| 2021/22 | Montpellier HSC | Ligue 1 | CB | 34 | 2777 | 81% | 2 | 2 | 0.13 | 0.12 | 1424 | 1366 | 0.86 |
| 2020/21 | Montpellier HSC | Ligue 1 | LB | 20 | 1374 | 40% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 1423 | 1425 | 0.75 |
| 2019/20 | Montpellier HSC | Ligue 1 | CB | 7 | 556 | 22% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 1451 | 1463 | 0.82 |
| 2018/19 | Montpellier HSC | Ligue 1 | CB | 12 | 986 | 29% | 0 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.09 | 1474 | 1475 | 0.82 |
| 2017/18 | Montpellier HSC | Ligue 1 | LB | 9 | 578 | 17% | 1 | 1 | 0.31 | 0.26 | 1484 | 1438 | 0.85 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023/24 | Dfb Pokal | VfL Wolfsburg | 1 | 21 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Dfb Pokal | VfL Wolfsburg | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Petar Stojanović Serie A · 2022 | 27 | €3.0M | €1.3M | fell |
| Ahmed Kantari Ligue 1 · 2013 | 28 | €1.8M | €1.0M | fell |
| Romain Danzé Ligue 1 · 2013 | 27 | €3.5M | €2.5M | fell |
| Javi Sánchez Laliga · 2023 | 26 | €3.0M | €1.5M | fell |
| Jens Stryger Serie A · 2018 | 27 | €2.0M | €2.8M | rose |
| Martin Erlić Serie A · 2024 | 26 | €3.0M | €4.0M | rose |
| Jean-Charles Castelletto Ligue 1 · 2020 | 25 | €2.4M | €4.0M | rose |
| Oussama Haddadi Ligue 1 · 2019 | 27 | €3.5M | €2.5M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2026 | Wolfsburg | Without Club | Unknown | €2.5M |
| 30 Jun 2026 | FC Nantes | Wolfsburg | Free / loan | €2.5M |
| 28 Aug 2024 | Wolfsburg | FC Nantes | Free / loan | €3.5M |
| 30 Jun 2024 | FC Nantes | Wolfsburg | Free / loan | €3.5M |
| 1 Feb 2024 | Wolfsburg | FC Nantes | Free / loan | €3.5M |
| 25 Jan 2023 | Montpellier | Wolfsburg | €500k | €5.0M |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Montpellier U19 | Montpellier | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Montpellier U17 | Montpellier U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2014 | Montpellier For | Montpellier U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.