Nicolas Cozza

27 yrs · Centre-back (also LB) · France
FC Nantes · Ligue 1 · Foot: left · Height: 181 cm
Risk: LowConfidence: MediumSample: HighDevelopment: LowContract: Data unavailable
Market value
€2.5M
Updated 6 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€877k – €3.4M
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€2.1M – €8.3M
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€857k – €2.5M
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€1.2M – €7.4M
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€877k – €3.4M
Model value (performance-implied)€2.1M – €8.3M
Projected value (24 months)€857k – €2.5M
Dashed line: current market value (€2.5M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Nicolas Cozza's performance-implied value at EUR 2.1M-8.3M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.9M-3.4M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.9M-2.5M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Acquisition note: Contract end date unavailable: range widened by 15% each side.

Bargain Index: 25

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

PerformanceAbove average61.6th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral)
AgeNeutral27.5 years
Acquisition costFavorableest. €2.0M vs market €2.5M
Expected appreciationVery low-35% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapLargeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationBig-five leagueleague coefficient 0.88
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskLow
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €5.0M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
2303 (75% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.04
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.07
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
62 (Above average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.88 (rank 5)
Team strength (Elo)
1304
Opponent strength
1487
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
stable
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€857k – €2.5M

Trajectory drivers: role change LB -> CB.

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -29% (IQR -45% to +35%).

Risk profile

Overall: Low

  • ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
  • ⓘContract end date unavailable (or stale in source).
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Already playing in a big-five league.

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26FC NantesLigue 1CB29230375%010.040.07148713040.88
2024/25FC NantesLigue 1LB27205167%110.090.14148613570.88
2023/24FC NantesLigue 1LB1389629%000.000.10151413090.87
2023/24VfL WolfsburgBundesligaLB62779%000.000.10142414271.01
2022/23Montpellier HSCLigue 1LB17127537%210.210.23145214400.82
2022/23VfL WolfsburgBundesligaLB5973%000.000.12155815251.04
2021/22Montpellier HSCLigue 1CB34277781%220.130.12142413660.86
2020/21Montpellier HSCLigue 1LB20137440%000.000.05142314250.75
2019/20Montpellier HSCLigue 1CB755622%000.000.05145114630.82
2018/19Montpellier HSCLigue 1CB1298629%010.090.09147414750.82
2017/18Montpellier HSCLigue 1LB957817%110.310.26148414380.85

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2023/24Dfb PokalVfL Wolfsburg12100—
2022/23Dfb PokalVfL Wolfsburg1600—

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Petar Stojanović
Serie A · 2022
27€3.0M€1.3Mfell
Ahmed Kantari
Ligue 1 · 2013
28€1.8M€1.0Mfell
Romain Danzé
Ligue 1 · 2013
27€3.5M€2.5Mfell
Javi Sánchez
Laliga · 2023
26€3.0M€1.5Mfell
Jens Stryger
Serie A · 2018
27€2.0M€2.8Mrose
Martin Erlić
Serie A · 2024
26€3.0M€4.0Mrose
Jean-Charles Castelletto
Ligue 1 · 2020
25€2.4M€4.0Mrose
Oussama Haddadi
Ligue 1 · 2019
27€3.5M€2.5Mfell

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
1 Jul 2026WolfsburgWithout ClubUnknown€2.5M
30 Jun 2026FC NantesWolfsburgFree / loan€2.5M
28 Aug 2024WolfsburgFC NantesFree / loan€3.5M
30 Jun 2024FC NantesWolfsburgFree / loan€3.5M
1 Feb 2024WolfsburgFC NantesFree / loan€3.5M
25 Jan 2023MontpellierWolfsburg€500k€5.0M
1 Jul 2017Montpellier U19MontpellierUnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2016Montpellier U17Montpellier U19UnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2014Montpellier ForMontpellier U17UnknownData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.