Jesús Areso
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Jesús Areso's performance-implied value at EUR 3.0M-6.3M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 2.2M-5.4M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 2.0M-4.8M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 26
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 68.3th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 27 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €3.8M vs market €5.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -38% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Small | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.95 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1504 (44% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.06
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.08
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 68 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.95 (rank 2)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1451
- Opponent strength
- 1455
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €2.0M – €4.8M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 46 pts; changed club; relative output down 37% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -33% (IQR -44% to -15%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 1504 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Athletic Bilbao | Laliga | RB | 26 | 1504 | 44% | 0 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.08 | 1455 | 1451 | 0.95 |
| 2024/25 | CA Osasuna | Laliga | RB | 36 | 3089 | 90% | 0 | 3 | 0.09 | 0.13 | 1509 | 1484 | 0.95 |
| 2023/24 | CA Osasuna | Laliga | RB | 37 | 2661 | 78% | 1 | 6 | 0.24 | 0.28 | 1506 | 1442 | 1.00 |
| 2021/22 | CA Osasuna | Laliga | RB | 3 | 188 | 5% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.13 | 1534 | 1446 | 1.05 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | Athletic Bilbao | 5 | 264 | 0 | 0 | 1660 |
| 2025/26 | Copa Del Rey | Athletic Bilbao | 3 | 105 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | Supercopa | Athletic Bilbao | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1800 |
| 2024/25 | Copa Del Rey | CA Osasuna | 4 | 276 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2023/24 | Copa Del Rey | CA Osasuna | 2 | 119 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2023/24 | Supercopa | CA Osasuna | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1695 |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | CA Osasuna | 2 | 29 | 0 | 0 | 1505 |
| 2021/22 | Copa Del Rey | CA Osasuna | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nacho Vidal Laliga · 2023 | 28 | €5.0M | €1.8M | fell |
| Pape Souaré Ligue 1 · 2015 | 25 | €5.0M | €6.0M | rose |
| Andrea Ranocchia Serie A · 2016 | 28 | €7.5M | €5.0M | fell |
| Bastian Oczipka Bundesliga · 2014 | 25 | €3.0M | €3.0M | flat |
| Charles Traoré Ligue 1 · 2019 | 27 | €3.0M | €2.0M | fell |
| Carlos Zambrano Bundesliga · 2015 | 26 | €6.5M | €3.0M | fell |
| Kiki Kouyaté Ligue 1 · 2023 | 26 | €5.0M | €3.0M | fell |
| Mexer Ligue 1 · 2016 | 28 | €5.0M | €4.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 Jul 2025 | CA Osasuna | Athletic Club | €12.0M | €12.0M |
| 30 Jun 2023 | Burgos CF | CA Osasuna | Free / loan | €1.2M |
| 23 Aug 2022 | CA Osasuna | Burgos CF | Free / loan | €800k |
| 1 Jul 2021 | Bilbao Athletic | CA Osasuna | Free / loan | €300k |
| 7 Jul 2017 | Osasuna U19 | Bilbao Athletic | €450k | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.