Ao Tanaka
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Ao Tanaka's performance-implied value at EUR 5.2M-16.0M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 6.5M-14.2M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 5.2M-13.6M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.02x the positional average in the league (1318 minutes, league coefficient 1.30). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 21
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | High | 78.8th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 27.8 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €9.5M vs market €13.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -43% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 1.3 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1318 (39% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.14
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.22
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 79 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 1.30 (rank 1)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1521
- Opponent strength
- 1592
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €5.2M – €13.6M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -17% (IQR -42% to +0%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 1318 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Leeds United | Premier League | CM | 28 | 1318 | 39% | 2 | 0 | 0.14 | 0.22 | 1592 | 1521 | 1.30 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Fa Cup | Leeds United | 5 | 381 | 2 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | World Cup | Japan | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stuart Armstrong Premier League · 2019 | 27 | €8.0M | €8.0M | flat |
| Ross Barkley Premier League · 2021 | 28 | €20.0M | €6.0M | fell |
| Solly March Premier League · 2021 | 27 | €9.0M | €22.0M | rose |
| Saša Lukić Premier League · 2024 | 28 | €10.0M | €10.0M | flat |
| Jeffrey Schlupp Premier League · 2021 | 29 | €9.0M | €7.0M | fell |
| Mario Lemina Premier League · 2019 | 26 | €15.0M | €10.0M | fell |
| Frank Onyeka Premier League · 2024 | 26 | €9.0M | €8.0M | flat |
| Robbie Brady Premier League · 2019 | 27 | €8.0M | €3.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Aug 2024 | F. Düsseldorf | Leeds | €4.0M | €4.0M |
| 1 Jul 2022 | Kawasaki Front. | F. Düsseldorf | €1.0M | €1.5M |
| 30 Jun 2022 | F. Düsseldorf | Kawasaki Front. | Free / loan | €1.5M |
| 1 Jul 2021 | Kawasaki Front. | F. Düsseldorf | Free / loan | €1.7M |
| 1 Feb 2017 | Frontale U18 | Kawasaki Front. | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.