Ross Barkley
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Ross Barkley's performance-implied value at EUR 6.4M-12.2M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.0M-3.3M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.4M-2.9M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.12x the positional average in the league (852 minutes, league coefficient 1.30). Confidence is low: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Insufficient sample (< 900 league minutes)
| Performance | Elite | 90.9th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 32.6 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €1.3M vs market €4.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -56% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 1.3 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Very High | |
| Data confidence | Low |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1164 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 852 (25% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.42
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.24
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 91 (Elite)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 1.30 (rank 1)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1721
- Opponent strength
- 1577
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €1.4M – €2.9M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -54% (IQR -62% to -49%).
Risk profile
Overall: Very High
- ▲Small sample: 852 league minutes last season.
- ▲Age 33: resale value typically declines.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Aston Villa | Premier League | CM | 21 | 852 | 25% | 3 | 1 | 0.42 | 0.24 | 1577 | 1721 | 1.30 |
| 2024/25 | Aston Villa | Premier League | CM | 20 | 567 | 17% | 3 | 1 | 0.63 | 0.29 | 1510 | 1695 | 1.23 |
| 2023/24 | Luton Town | Premier League | CM | 32 | 2622 | 77% | 5 | 4 | 0.31 | 0.42 | 1610 | 1315 | 1.14 |
| 2022/23 | OGC Nice | Ligue 1 | CM | 27 | 921 | 27% | 4 | 2 | 0.59 | 0.41 | 1443 | 1519 | 0.82 |
| 2021/22 | Chelsea FC | Premier League | AM | 6 | 175 | 5% | 1 | 0 | 0.51 | 0.20 | 1426 | 1737 | 1.17 |
| 2020/21 | Aston Villa | Premier League | AM | 24 | 1537 | 45% | 3 | 1 | 0.23 | 0.40 | 1594 | 1517 | 1.19 |
| 2020/21 | Chelsea FC | Premier League | AM | 2 | 40 | 1% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.34 | 1553 | 1735 | 1.19 |
| 2019/20 | Chelsea FC | Premier League | CM | 21 | 1104 | 32% | 1 | 4 | 0.41 | 0.26 | 1543 | 1653 | 1.14 |
| 2018/19 | Chelsea FC | Premier League | CM | 27 | 1241 | 36% | 3 | 5 | 0.58 | 0.28 | 1498 | 1750 | 1.22 |
| 2017/18 | Chelsea FC | Premier League | AM | 2 | 131 | 4% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.22 | 1458 | 1667 | 1.15 |
| 2016/17 | Everton FC | Premier League | AM | 36 | 2907 | 85% | 5 | 9 | 0.43 | 0.35 | 1526 | 1570 | 1.07 |
| 2015/16 | Everton FC | Premier League | AM | 38 | 3086 | 90% | 8 | 8 | 0.47 | 0.40 | 1534 | 1516 | 1.08 |
| 2014/15 | Everton FC | Premier League | AM | 29 | 1963 | 57% | 2 | 2 | 0.18 | 0.25 | 1530 | 1560 | 1.06 |
| 2013/14 | Everton FC | Premier League | AM | 34 | 2288 | 67% | 6 | 2 | 0.31 | 0.29 | 1551 | 1654 | 1.12 |
| 2012/13 | Everton FC | Premier League | CM | 7 | 206 | 6% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.19 | 1592 | 1595 | 1.07 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Fa Cup | Aston Villa | 1 | 65 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League | Aston Villa | 1 | 30 | 0 | 0 | 1390 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League | Aston Villa | 6 | 99 | 1 | 0 | 1631 |
| 2024/25 | Fa Cup | Aston Villa | 2 | 43 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Fa Cup | Luton Town | 4 | 346 | 0 | 2 | — |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Champions League | Chelsea FC | 3 | 96 | 0 | 0 | 1571 |
| 2021/22 | Fa Cup | Chelsea FC | 2 | 25 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Fa Cup | Chelsea FC | 5 | 327 | 3 | 1 | — |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Champions League | Chelsea FC | 3 | 161 | 0 | 0 | 1866 |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Super Cup | Chelsea FC | 1 | 19 | 0 | 0 | 1915 |
| 2018/19 | Uefa Europa League | Chelsea FC | 12 | 805 | 3 | 1 | 1512 |
| 2018/19 | Fa Cup | Chelsea FC | 3 | 193 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2018/19 | Community Shield | Chelsea FC | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1831 |
| 2017/18 | Fa Cup | Chelsea FC | 1 | 17 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2016/17 | Fa Cup | Everton FC | 1 | 75 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2015/16 | Fa Cup | Everton FC | 4 | 336 | 2 | 2 | — |
| 2014/15 | Uefa Europa League | Everton FC | 5 | 362 | 0 | 1 | 1559 |
| 2014/15 | Fa Cup | Everton FC | 2 | 157 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2013/14 | Fa Cup | Everton FC | 3 | 234 | 1 | 1 | — |
| 2012/13 | Fa Cup | Everton FC | 1 | 11 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mikel Rico Laliga · 2017 | 33 | €2.0M | €800k | fell |
| Seydou Keita Laliga · 2014 | 34 | €1.5M | €500k | fell |
| Marouane Fellaini Premier League · 2019 | 32 | €12.0M | €5.0M | fell |
| Nemanja Matić Premier League · 2022 | 34 | €5.0M | €3.0M | fell |
| Tiago Mendes Laliga · 2016 | 35 | €2.0M | €1.0M | fell |
| Duda Laliga · 2013 | 33 | €2.0M | €1.0M | fell |
| Sergi Roberto Laliga · 2024 | 32 | €2.5M | €1.4M | fell |
| Francis Coquelin Laliga · 2022 | 31 | €5.0M | €1.5M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2024 | Luton | Aston Villa | €5.9M | €8.0M |
| 9 Aug 2023 | Nice | Luton | Free / loan | €6.0M |
| 4 Sept 2022 | Without Club | Nice | Unknown | €12.0M |
| 29 Aug 2022 | Chelsea | Without Club | Unknown | €12.0M |
| 31 May 2021 | Aston Villa | Chelsea | Free / loan | €20.0M |
| 30 Sept 2020 | Chelsea | Aston Villa | Free / loan | €21.5M |
| 5 Jan 2018 | Everton | Chelsea | €16.8M | €25.0M |
| 11 Feb 2013 | Leeds | Everton | Free / loan | €4.5M |
| 11 Jan 2013 | Everton | Leeds | Free / loan | €4.5M |
| 19 Nov 2012 | Sheff Wed | Everton | Free / loan | €4.5M |
| 14 Sept 2012 | Everton | Sheff Wed | Free / loan | €4.5M |
| 1 Jul 2011 | Everton U18 | Everton | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2009 | Everton Youth | Everton U18 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.